Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33323043›Full record

Observational studyPalliative medicine2021

Estimating the current and future prevalence of life-limiting conditions in children in England.

Lorna K Fraser, Deborah Gibson-Smith, Stuart Jarvis, Paul Norman, Roger C Parslow

Registry-linked trialAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Palliative medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07102433 (CHESS - Complexity and Outcomes in Health, Education, and Social Support Among Children and Young People With Life-limiting Conditions), which is not on this map. Cited by 112 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
112citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07102433 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

CHESS - Complexity and Outcomes in Health, Education, and Social Support Among Children and Young People With Life-limiting Conditions: Establishing a Multisectoral Collaboration and Conceptual Framework to Advance Evidence and Practice.

TypeobservationalSponsorKing's College LondonRan2025 to 2026Enrolled170ConditionsComplex Care, Medical Complexity, Pediatrics, Life-limiting IllnessArmsChildren and young people with life-limiting conditions, their parents/carers, and professionals across healthcare, education, and social care sectors.
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

112 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Patient and Public Involvement Work With Parents of Children With Life-Limiting Conditions and Bereaved Parents: A Rapid Systematic Review.Health expectations : an international journal of public participation in health care and health policy · 2024
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52 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Lorna K FraserDepartment of Health Sciences, Martin House Research Centre, University of York, York, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1360-4191
Deborah Gibson-SmithDepartment of Health Sciences, Martin House Research Centre, University of York, York, UK.
Stuart JarvisDepartment of Health Sciences, Martin House Research Centre, University of York, York, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8447-0306
Paul NormanSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6211-1625
Roger C ParslowLeeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Molecular Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.

Funding

Department of Health CDF-2018-11-ST2-002Department of Health DRF-2018-11-ST2-013
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPrevious studies showed increasing number of children with a life-limiting or life-threatening condition who may benefit from input from pediatric palliative care services.

aimTo estimate the current prevalence of children with a life-limiting condition and to model future prevalence of this population.

designObservational study using national inpatient hospital data. A population-based approach utilizing ethnic specific population projections was used to estimate future prevalence. SETTING/

participantsAll children aged 0-19 years with a life-limiting condition diagnostic code recorded in Hospital Episodes Statistics data in England from 2000/01 to 2017/18.

resultsData on 4,543,386 hospital episodes for 359,634 individuals were included. The prevalence of children with a life-limiting condition rose from 26.7 per 10,000 (95%CI 26.5-27.0) in 2001/02 to 66.4 per 10,000 (95% CI: 66.0-66.8) in 2017/18. Using a more restricted definition of a life-limiting condition reduced the prevalence from 66.4 to 61.1 per 10,000 (95%CI 60.7-61.5) in 2017/18. Highest prevalence was in the under 1-year age group at 226.5 per 10,000 and children with a congenital abnormality had the highest prevalence (27.2 per 10,000 (95%CI: 26.9-27.5)).The prevalence was highest among the most deprived group and in children of Pakistani origin.Predicted future prevalence of life-limiting conditions ranged from 67.0 (95%CI 67.7-66.3) to 84.22 (95%CI 78.66-90.17) per 10,000 by 2030.

conclusionsThe prevalence of children with a life-limiting or life-threatening condition in England has risen over the last 17 years and is predicted to increase. Future data collections must include the data required to assess the complex health and social care needs of these children.

Indexed as

PrevalenceChildEnglandForecastingHumanschildhospital episode statisticsLife-limiting conditionlife-threatening conditionpalliative carepediatrics

Identifiers

PMID33323043
PMCPMC8532217

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.