Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33318087›Full record

ArticleThe British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners2021

Estimating lung cancer risk from chest X-ray and symptoms: a prospective cohort study.

Stephen H Bradley, Nathaniel Luke Fielding Hatton, Rehima Aslam, Bobby Bhartia, Matthew Ej Callister, Martyn Pt Kennedy, Luke Ta Mounce, Bethany Shinkins, William T Hamilton, Richard D Neal

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.2field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 36 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Achieving earlier diagnosis of symptomatic lung cancer.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Improving early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in symptomatic patients.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2023
    Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Trends and variation in urgent referrals for suspected cancer 2009/2010-2019/2020.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2022
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Interpreting negative test results when assessing cancer risk in general practice.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2021
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Stephen H BradleyLeeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds.
Nathaniel Luke Fielding HattonLeeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust.
Rehima AslamCalderdale and Huddersfield NHS Trust.
Bobby BhartiaLeeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust.
Matthew Ej CallisterLeeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust.
Martyn Pt KennedyLeeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust.
Luke Ta MounceCollege of Medicine & Health, University of Exeter.
Bethany ShinkinsTest Evaluation Group, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds.
William T HamiltonCollege of Medicine & Health, University of Exeter.
Richard D NealLeeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds.
Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust · GBUniversity of Leeds · GBUniversity of Exeter · GBCalderdale and Huddersfield NHS Foundation Trust · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundChest X-ray (CXR) is the first-line investigation for lung cancer in many countries but previous research has suggested that the disease is not detected by CXR in approximately 20% of patients. The risk of lung cancer, with particular symptoms, following a negative CXR is not known.

aimTo establish the sensitivity and specificity of CXR requested by patients who are symptomatic; determine the positive predictive values (PPVs) of each presenting symptom of lung cancer following a negative CXR; and determine whether symptoms associated with lung cancer are different in those who had a positive CXR result compared with those who had a negative CXR result. DESIGN AND

settingA prospective cohort study was conducted in Leeds, UK, based on routinely collected data from a service that allowed patients with symptoms of lung cancer to request CXR.

methodSymptom data were combined with a diagnostic category (positive or negative) for each CXR, and the sensitivity and specificity of CXR for lung cancer were calculated. The PPV of lung cancer associated with each symptom or combination of symptoms was estimated for those patients with a negative CXR.

resultsIn total, 114 (1.3%) of 8996 patients who requested a CXR were diagnosed with lung cancer within 1 year. Sensitivity was 75.4% and specificity was 90.2%. The PPV of all symptoms for a diagnosis of lung cancer within 1 year of CXR was <1% for all individual symptoms except for haemoptysis, which had a PPV of 2.9%. PPVs for a diagnosis of lung cancer within 2 years of CXR was <1.5% for all single symptoms except for haemoptysis, which had a PPV of 3.9%.

conclusionCXR has limited sensitivity; however, in a population with a low prevalence of lung cancer, its high specificity and negative predictive value means that lung cancer is very unlikely to be present following a negative result. Findings also support guidance that unexplained haemoptysis warrants urgent referral, regardless of CXR result.

Indexed as

LungLung NeoplasmsHumansProspective StudiesRadiographyRadiography, ThoracicSensitivity and SpecificityX-Rayschest x-rayearly diagnosisgeneral practicelung cancerprimary careradiograph

Identifiers

PMID33318087
PMCPMC7744041
OpenAlexW3110530540

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.