Observational studyPublic health2021
Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases.
Observational study in Public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effective public health measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2021Pooled it
- What drives urban pandemic control performance in China? A configurational analysis of the resource-performance paradox.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Constructing protective mechanism by analysis of vaccine impact based on hybrid model of dynamic DEA and cluster tendency.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Application and significance of SIRVB model in analyzing COVID-19 dynamics.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Application and Significance of SIRVB Model in Analyzing COVID-19 Dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Executive and hierarchical models for participatory response to health emergencies in the workplace: Lessons from COVID-19.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Vaccine hesitancy and post-vaccination adherence to safety measures: A mixed-method study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Non-Pharmacologic Interventions in COVID-19 Pandemic Management; a Systematic Review.Archives of academic emergency medicine · 2023Review
- Article
- Behavioral predictors of household food-safety practices during the COVID-19 pandemic: Extending the theory of planned behavior.Food control · 2022Article
- Food services in times of uncertainty: Remodeling operations, changing trends, and looking into perspectives after the COVID-19 pandemic.Trends in food science & technology · 2022Article
- Reinfection With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Patients Undergoing Serial Laboratory Testing.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Social Distancing during COVID-19 Pandemic among Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
- The Psychosocial Influence of Companion Animals on Positive and Negative Affect during the COVID-19 Pandemic.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2021Article
- Indoor air quality improvement in COVID-19 pandemic: Review.Sustainable cities and society · 2021Article
- Should I stay, or should I go? Consumers' perceived risk and intention to visit restaurants during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesMandated social distancing has been applied globally to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the beneficial effects of this community-based intervention have not been proven or quantified for the COVID-19 pandemic. STUDY
designThis is a regional population-level observational study.
methodsUsing publicly available data, we examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 cases in 119 geographic regions, derived from 41 states within the United States and 78 other countries. The highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day recorded within a geographic unit was the primary outcome. The total number of COVID-19 cases in regions where case numbers had reached the tail end of the outbreak was an exploratory outcome.
resultsWe found that the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with the total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.66, P < 0.0001). These findings suggest that if mandated social distancing is not initiated until the number of existing COVID-19 cases has doubled, the eventual peak would result in 58% more COVID-19 cases per day. Subgroup analysis on those regions where the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day has peaked showed increase in β values to 0.85 (P < 0.0001). The total number of cases during the outbreak in a region was strongly predicted by the total number of COVID-19 cases on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.97, P < 0.0001).
conclusionsInitiating mandated social distancing when the numbers of COVID-19 cases are low within a region significantly reduces the number of new daily COVID-19 cases and perhaps also reduces the total number of cases in the region.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.