ArticleBMC public health2020
Epidemiological and time series analysis on the incidence and death of AIDS and HIV in China.
Article in BMC public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evaluation of toll-like receptor inhibition by novel thymoquinone analogues as potential remedy for diabetic nephropathy.Molecular diversity · 2026Article
- Cohort profile: transformative research on equity and social determinants to uplift resilience and empower LGBTQ+ health in China (TREASURE).European journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of HIV and AIDS in mainland China: a 16-Year national surveillance analysis (2005-2020).BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Forecasting monthly AIDS incidence in China via LSTM-CNN parallel fusion: a comparative study of 10 predictive models.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Assessing three-decade HIV testing transformation: TOPSIS-radar evaluation of tiered health system performance in rural-urban Southwestern China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Disease burden of HIV and its behavioral risks among adults aged 20-54 years in China and the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Statistical modelling and forecasting of HIV and anti-retroviral therapy cases by time-series and machine learning models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Global, regional and national burden of HIV/AIDS among individuals aged 15-79 from 1990 to 2021.AIDS research and therapy · 2025Article
- A novel fractal fractional mathematical model for HIV/AIDS transmission stability and sensitivity with numerical analysis.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Study on the prediction performance of AIDS monthly incidence in Xinjiang based on time series and deep learning models.BMC public health · 2025Article
- The trend of AIDS in China: A prediction and comparative analysis with G20 countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Cross-correlation and time series analysis of rabies in different animal species in Nepal from 2005 to 2018.Heliyon · 2024Article
- The association between fear of progression and medical coping strategies among people living with HIV: a cross-sectional study.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Deep evolutionary fusion neural network: a new prediction standard for infectious disease incidence rates.BMC bioinformatics · 2024Article
- Comparison of simulation and predictive efficacy for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence in mainland China based on five time series models.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Study on Univariate Modeling and Prediction Methods Using Monthly HIV Incidence and Mortality Cases in China.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2024Article
- Exploring the influence of environmental indicators and forecasting influenza incidence using ARIMAX models.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Applications of time series analysis in epidemiology: Literature review and our experience during COVID-19 pandemic.World journal of clinical cases · 2023Review
- Analysis and prediction of the incidence and prevalence trends of gonorrhea in China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2023Article
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3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTo investigate the regional and age-specific distribution of AIDS/HIV in China from 2004 to 2017 and to conduct time series analysis of the epidemiological trends.
methodUsing official surveillance data from publicly accessible database of the national infectious disease reporting system, we described long-term patterns of incidence and death in AIDS/HIV, analyzed age group and regional epidemic characteristics, and established Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis.
resultThe incidence and death of AIDS/HIV have increased rapidly from 2004 to 2017, with significant difference regarding age groups and provincial regions (a few provinces appear as hot spots). With goodness-of-fit criteria and using data from 2004 to 2015, ARIMA (0,1,3) × (2,0,0), ARIMA (3,1,0) × (1,0,1), and ARIMA (0,1,2) × (2,0,0) were chosen as the optimal model for the incidence of AIDS, HIV, and combined; ARIMA (0,1,3) × (1,0,0) was chosen as the optimal model for the death of AIDS, HIV, and combined. ARIMA models robustly predicted the incidence and death of AIDS/HIV in 2016 and 2017.
conclusionA focused intervention strategy targeting specific regions and age groups is essential for the prevention and control of AIDS/HIV. ARIMA models function as data-driven and evidence-based methods to forecast the trends of infectious diseases and formulate public health policies.
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