Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33313990›Full record

ArticlePharmacoEconomics2021

The Application and Implications of Novel Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis Methods.

Rick A Vreman, Joost W Geenen, Saskia Knies, Aukje K Mantel-Teeuwisse, Hubert G M Leufkens, Wim G Goettsch

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PharmacoEconomics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Review
  4. Article
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  16. Cost-Effectiveness of Bariatric Surgery in Tunisia.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2023
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Rick A VremanDivision of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 35384 CG, Utrecht, The Netherlands. r.a.vreman@uu.nl.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2076-322X
Joost W GeenenDivision of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 35384 CG, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Saskia KniesThe National Health Care Institute (ZIN), Diemen, The Netherlands.
Aukje K Mantel-TeeuwisseDivision of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 35384 CG, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Hubert G M LeufkensDivision of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 35384 CG, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Wim G GoettschDivision of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 35384 CG, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA) remain important to interpret the effect of uncertainties in individual parameters on results of cost-effectiveness analyses. Classic DSA methodologies may lead to wrong conclusions due to a lack of or misleading information regarding marginal effects, non-linearity, likelihood and correlations. In addition, tornado diagrams are misleading in some situations. Recent advances in DSA methods have the potential to provide decision makers with more reliable information regarding the effects of uncertainties in individual parameters. This practical application discusses advances to classic DSA methods and their implications. Three methods are discussed: stepwise DSA, distributional DSA and probabilistic DSA. For each method, the technical specifications, options for presenting results, and its implications for decision making are discussed. Options for visualizing DSA results in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and in incremental net benefits are presented. The use of stepwise DSA increases interpretability of marginal effects and non-linearities in the model, which is especially relevant when arbitrary ranges are implemented. Using the probability distribution of each parameter in distributional DSA provides insight on the likelihood of model outcomes while probabilistic DSA also includes the effects of correlations between parameters.Probabilistic DSA, preferably expressed in incremental net benefit, is the most appropriate method for providing insight on the effect of uncertainty in individual parameters on the estimate of cost effectiveness. However, the opportunities provided by probabilistic DSA may not always be needed for decision making. Other DSA methods, in particular distributional DSA, can sometimes be sufficient depending on model features. Decision makers must determine to which extent they will accept and implement these new and improved DSA methodologies and adjust guidelines accordingly.

Indexed as

UncertaintyCost-Benefit AnalysisEvidence-Based MedicineHumansProbability

Identifiers

PMID33313990
PMCPMC7790801

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.