ArticleScience advances2020
A mathematical model of ctDNA shedding predicts tumor detection size.
Article in Science advances, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 126 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
126 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Potential clinical utility of liquid biopsy in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer.BMC medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Genomic and epigenomic biomarkers in colorectal cancer: From diagnosis to therapy.Advances in cancer research · 2021Pooled it
- Twenty Years On: RECIST as a Biomarker of Response in Solid Tumours an EORTC Imaging Group - ESOI Joint Paper.Frontiers in oncology · 2021Pooled it
- First-in-Human Phase I/IIa Study of the First-in-Class CDK2/4/6 Inhibitor PF-06873600 Alone or with Endocrine Therapy in Patients with Breast Cancer.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2025Trial
- A Real-World Assessment of Stage I Lung Cancer Through Electronic Nose Technology.Journal of thoracic oncology : official publication of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer · 2024Trial
- Tissue-Specific Isolation of Hepatocyte Extracellular Vesicles From Human Plasma Enables Tissue-Resolved Proteomic and miRNA Profiling.Journal of extracellular vesicles · 2026Article
- Perioperative Circulating Tumor DNA in Resectable Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma: Molecular Residual Disease, Recurrence Prediction, and a Trial-Ready Framework for Treatment Adaptation.Journal of gastrointestinal cancer · 2026Review
- Pre-operative circulating tumour DNA in high-risk primary cutaneous melanoma: prospective feasibility in molecular pathology.Acta oncologica (Stockholm, Sweden) · 2026Article
- The role of serologic biomarkers "liquid biopsy" in the fight against breast cancer: From biological foundations to clinical impact.iScience · 2026Review
- Multifeature sequencing-based liquid biopsy for cancer diagnosis and monitoring.Genome medicine · 2026Review
- Deep learning-based computed tomography quantification integrated with circulating tumor cells for prognostic evaluation in stage I lung adenocarcinoma.Quantitative imaging in medicine and surgery · 2026Article
- Coupled SDE-ODE Modeling of Tumor-Immune Dynamics to Infer Biomarker Release.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- The role of circulating tumor DNA in ovarian cancer.Discover oncology · 2026Review
- Autophagy-Circulating Tumor DNA Axis in Molecular Cancer Research: Emerging Mechanisms, Therapeutic Targeting, and Translational Opportunities.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Article
- Early Cancer Detection: What's Going on and What's Next.MedComm · 2026Review
- Liquid biopsy in Oncology: Results of a Delphi consensus study endorsed by the AIOM-SIAPEC/IAP-SIBioC-SIF Italian scientific societies.The journal of liquid biopsy · 2026Article
- Article
- Monitoring of circulating tumor DNA in patients with stage II-III breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy.NPJ breast cancer · 2026Article
- Validation of a methylation-based, tissue-free MRD assay in colorectal cancer patients from the GALAXY study.NPJ precision oncology · 2026Article
66 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Early cancer detection aims to find tumors before they progress to an incurable stage. To determine the potential of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) for cancer detection, we developed a mathematical model of tumor evolution and ctDNA shedding to predict the size at which tumors become detectable. From 176 patients with stage I to III lung cancer, we inferred that, on average, 0.014% of a tumor cell's DNA is shed into the bloodstream per cell death. For annual screening, the model predicts median detection sizes of 2.0 to 2.3 cm representing a ~40% decrease from the current median detection size of 3.5 cm. For informed monthly cancer relapse testing, the model predicts a median detection size of 0.83 cm and suggests that treatment failure can be detected 140 days earlier than with imaging-based approaches. This mechanistic framework can help accelerate clinical trials by precomputing the most promising cancer early detection strategies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.