ArticleISA transactions2022
A parametrized nonlinear predictive control strategy for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing measures in Brazil.
Article in ISA transactions, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.Computation (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Stochastic optimization for vaccine and testing kit allocation for the COVID-19 pandemic.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Multi-objective T-S fuzzy control of Covid-19 spread model: An LMI approach.Biomedical signal processing and control · 2023Article
- A stochastic inventory model of COVID-19 and robust, real-time identification of carriers at large and infection rate via asymptotic laws.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Mathematical modeling to study the impact of immigration on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study for Venezuela.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2022Article
- Recursive state and parameter estimation of COVID-19 circulating variants dynamics.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Controlling epidemic diseases based only on social distancing level: General case.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Feedback control of social distancing for COVID-19 via elementary formulae.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2022Article
- Hybrid Model-Based Simulation Analysis on the Effects of Social Distancing Policy of the COVID-19 Epidemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Optimization in the Context of COVID-19 Prediction and Control: A Literature Review.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2021Article
- Modeling and control of epidemics through testing policies.Annual reviews in control · 2021Article
- Convex output feedback model predictive control for mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic.Annual reviews in control · 2021Article
- Epidemiological Predictive Modeling of COVID-19 Infection: Development, Testing, and Implementation on the Population of the Benelux Union.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- A Sequential Quadratic Programming Approach for the Predictive Control of the COVID-19 Spread.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2021Article
- The Quixotic Task of Forecasting Peaks of COVID-19: Rather Focus on Forward and Backward Projections.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first registered in Brazil by the end of February 2020. Since then, the country counts over 150000 deaths due to COVID-19 and faces a profound social and economic crisis; there is also an ongoing health catastrophe, with the majority of hospital beds in many Brazilian cities currently occupied with COVID-19 patients. Thus, a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) scheme used to plan appropriate social distancing measures (and relaxations) in order to mitigate the effects of this pandemic is formulated in this paper. The strategy is designed upon an adapted data-driven Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) model, which includes time-varying auto-regressive immunological parameters. A novel identification procedure is proposed, composed of analytical regressions, Least-Squares optimization and auto-regressive model fits. The adapted SIRD model is validated with real data and able to adequately represent the contagion curves over large forecast horizons. The NMPC strategy is designed to generate piecewise constant quarantine guidelines, which can be reassessed (relaxed/strengthened) each week. Simulation results show that the proposed NMPC technique is able to mitigate the number of infections and progressively loosen social distancing measures. With respect to a "no-control" condition, the number of deaths could be reduced in up to 30% if the proposed NMPC coordinated health policy measures are enacted.
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