ArticleEcology and evolution2020
Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction of
Article in Ecology and evolution, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Investigating sand dunes flora conservation based on remote sensing and predictive modeling in the Mediterranean coastal region, Egypt.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Predicting the future impact of climate change on the distribution of species in Egypt's mediterranean ecosystems.BMC plant biology · 2025Article
- Habitat suitability modeling to improve conservation strategy of two highly-grazed endemic plant species in saint Catherine Protectorate, Egypt.BMC plant biology · 2025Article
- Remarkably rapid, recent diversification of Cochemiea and Mammillaria in the Baja California, Mexico region.American journal of botany · 2022Article
- Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction ofEcology and evolution · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
aimThreats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of LOCATION: The island archipelago in Bahía Magdalena on the Pacific coast, Baja California Sur, Mexico.
methodsWe used temperature and precipitation variables at 30-arc second resolution and soil type, employing multiple species distribution modeling methods, to identify important climate and soil conditions driving current habitat suitability. The best model of current suitability is used to predict possible effects of four climate change scenarios based on best-case to worst-case representative concentration pathways, with projected climate data from two general circulation models, over two time periods. MAIN
conclusionsThe occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling.
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