ArticleBMJ global health2020
Modelling interventions to control COVID-19 outbreaks in a refugee camp.
Article in BMJ global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of spatial epidemiological modeling approaches applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Epidemiological modelling in refugee and internally displaced people settlements: challenges and ways forward.BMJ global health · 2022Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Spatial Epidemiological Modeling Approaches Applied During the COVID-19 Pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- "We want our freedom back, that's our only need": a qualitative study of health and social needs among asylum seekers and undocumented migrants crossing the borders from Belarus to Lithuania.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- COVID-19 prevention and control effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions-fuzzy-sets qualitative comparative analysis based on 69 countries in the world.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- A scoping review of the impacts of COVID-19 physical distancing measures on vulnerable population groups.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Health and well-being of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons under COVID-19: a scoping review.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Covid-19 case management in a Greek migrant camp: The Hellenic Red Cross Mobile Health Unit intervention in Nea Malakasa temporary accommodation center.Journal of migration and health · 2023Article
- Enhancing Respiratory Disease Surveillance to Detect COVID-19 in Shelters for Displaced Persons, Thailand-Myanmar Border, 2020-2021.Emerging infectious diseases · 2022Review
- COVID-19 epidemiology and changes in health service utilization in Uganda's refugee settlements during the first year of the pandemic.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Conflict, community, and COVID-19: response and implications in Ethiopia.Journal of public health in Africa · 2022Article
- Optimizing global COVID-19 vaccine allocation: An agent-based computational model of 148 countries.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- COVID-19 & informal settlements: is 'Stay Home' safe?UCL open. Environment · 2022Article
- Operational response simulation tool for epidemics within refugee and IDP settlements: A scenario-based case study of the Cox's Bazar settlement.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Empowering the crowd: feasible strategies for epidemic management in high-density informal settlements. The case of COVID-19 in Northwest Syria.BMJ global health · 2021Article
- Modeling of the Long-Term Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in the United States.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Refugees and Covid-19: Beyond Health Risks to Insecurity.Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Politikwissenschaft = Revue suisse de science politique = Swiss political science review · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn the absence of effective treatments or vaccines, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the mainstay of control in the COVID-19 pandemic. Refugee populations in displacement camps live under adverse conditions that are likely to favour the spread of disease. To date, only a few cases of COVID-19 have appeared in refugee camps, and whether feasible non-pharmaceutical interventions can prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in such settings remains untested.
methodsWe constructed the first spatially explicit agent-based model of a COVID-19 outbreak in a refugee camp, and applied it to evaluate feasible non-pharmaceutical interventions. We parameterised the model using published data on the transmission rates and progression dynamics of COVID-19, and demographic and spatial data from Europe's largest refugee camp, the Moria displacement camp on Lesbos, Greece. We simulated COVID-19 epidemics with and without four feasible interventions.
resultsSpatial subdivision of the camp ('sectoring') was able to 'flatten the curve', reducing peak infection by up to 70% and delaying peak infection by up to several months. The use of face masks coupled with the efficient isolation of infected individuals reduced the overall incidence of infection, and sometimes averted epidemics altogether. These interventions must be implemented quickly in order to be maximally effective. Lockdowns had only small effects on COVID-19 dynamics.
conclusionsAgent-based models are powerful tools for forecasting the spread of disease in spatially structured and heterogeneous populations. Our findings suggest that feasible interventions can slow the spread of COVID-19 in a refugee camp setting, and provide an evidence base for camp managers planning intervention strategies. Our model can be modified to study other closed populations at risk from COVID-19 or future epidemics.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.