Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33303462›Full record

Observational studyBMJ open2020

Comprehensive public health evaluation of lockdown as a non-pharmaceutical intervention on COVID-19 spread in India: national trends masking state-level variations.

Maxwell Salvatore, Deepankar Basu, Debashree Ray, Mike Kleinsasser, Soumik Purkayastha, Rupam Bhattacharyya, Bhramar Mukherjee

Registry-linked trialAbstract readObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04816318 (Policy Responses Against the COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America), which is not on this map. Cited by 35 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04816318 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

Policy Responses Against the COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America: Interrupted Series Analyses of Local Governments

TypeobservationalSponsorUniversity of ChileRan2021 to 2021Enrolled10,000ConditionsCovid19, Infectious Disease, Death, SARS-CoV InfectionArmsSocial and public health measures against COVID-19, Control
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
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  18. Modelling the first wave of COVID-19 in India.PLoS computational biology · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Maxwell SalvatoreDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Deepankar BasuDepartment of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA.
Debashree RayDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Mike KleinsasserDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Soumik PurkayasthaDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3619-2804
Rupam BhattacharyyaDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Bhramar MukherjeeDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA bhramar@umich.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0118-4561

Funding

XenograftP30CA046592 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Alexey I Nesvizhskii · 1988 to 2026
$178.2M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA046592
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo evaluate the effect of four-phase national lockdown from March 25 to May 31 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in India and unmask the state-wise variations in terms of multiple public health metrics.

designCohort study (daily time series of case counts).

settingObservational and population based.

participantsConfirmed COVID-19 cases nationally and across 20 states that accounted for >99% of the current cumulative case counts in India until 31 May 2020. EXPOSURE: Lockdown (non-medical intervention). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We illustrate the masking of state-level trends and highlight the variations across states by presenting evaluative evidence on some aspects of the COVID-19 outbreak: case fatality rates, doubling times of cases, effective reproduction numbers and the scale of testing.

resultsThe estimated effective reproduction number R for India was 3.36 (95% CI 3.03 to 3.71) on 24 March, whereas the average of estimates from 25 May to 31 May stands at 1.27 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.28). Similarly, the estimated doubling time across India was at 3.56 days on 24 March, and the past 7-day average for the same on 31 May is 14.37 days. The average daily number of tests increased from 1717 (19-25 March) to 113 372 (25-31 May) while the test positivity rate increased from 2.1% to 4.2%, respectively. However, various states exhibit substantial departures from these national patterns.

conclusionsPatterns of change over lockdown periods indicate the lockdown has been partly effective in slowing the spread of the virus nationally. However, there exist large state-level variations and identifying these variations can help in both understanding the dynamics of the pandemic and formulating effective public health interventions. Our framework offers a holistic assessment of the pandemic across Indian states and union territories along with a set of interactive visualisation tools that are daily updated at covind19.org.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 TestingHumansIndiaPublic HealthQuarantineepidemiologypublic healthstatistics & research methods

Identifiers

PMID33303462
PMCPMC7733201

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.