ArticleJournal of medical Internet research2021
SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.
Article in Journal of medical Internet research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 37 citations in OpenAlex.
- Emergency preparedness and health system resilience assessment tool: development and initial validation.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in East Asia and the Pacific Region: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Sub-Saharan Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- South Asia's COVID-19 History and Surveillance: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Article
- The COVID-19 experience in Africa and the Middle East.Annals of medicine · 2023Review
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- Assessment of drugs administered in the Middle East as part of the COVID-19 management protocols.Inflammopharmacology · 2022Review
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- Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia (North Africa) through Several Successive Waves of COVID-19.Viruses · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Surveillance Updates in US Metropolitan Areas: Dynamic Panel Data Modeling.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- The Public Health Governance of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Bibliometric Analysis.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic?JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System in Canada: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the disease burden of COVID-19. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 persistence and transmission.
objectiveThe goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence to better understand a country's risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed.
methodsUsing a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in MENA as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.
resultsThe regression Wald statistic was significant (χ
conclusionsStatic and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policies with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.