ArticleEcology letters2021
Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics.
Article in Ecology letters, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 33 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Impact of Climate on Human Dengue Infections in the Caribbean.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- The limitations of non-mechanistic methods for characterizing pathogen-pathogen interactions: A simulation study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Mammal Community Responses to Increasing Puma Activity in a Suburban Preserve.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Rural dengue dynamics: the interplay of climate, built environment, and agriculture in Costa Rica.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Revealing unseen dynamical regimes of ecosystems from population time-series data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Extreme precipitation, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, drove Peru's record-breaking 2023 dengue outbreak.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Forecasting malaria dynamics based on causal relations between control interventions, climatic factors, and disease incidence in western Kenya.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Using empirical dynamic modeling to identify the impact of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Weifang, Northeastern China, from 2011 to 2020.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Population impact of fine particulate matter on tuberculosis risk in China: a causal inference.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Dryland sensitivity to climate change and variability using nonlinear dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Short-term effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue: a time-series study in Guangzhou, China.Parasites & vectors · 2022Article
- Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases.Annual review of resource economics · 2022Article
- Generalism drives abundance: A computational causal discovery approach.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused byCommunications medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.