ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
Empirical model for short-time prediction of COVID-19 spreading.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Real-time prediction of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics in primary care using the Gompertz model.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Country-report pattern corrections of new cases allow accurate 2-week predictions of COVID-19 evolution with the Gompertz model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Exploring epidemic voluntary vaccinating behavior based on information-driven decisions and benefit-cost analysis.Applied mathematics and computation · 2023Article
- Learning from the past: A short term forecast method for the COVID-19 incidence curve.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- A semi-empirical risk panel to monitor epidemics: multi-faceted tool to assist healthcare and public health professionals.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Virus spread on a scale-free network reproduces the Gompertz growth observed in isolated COVID-19 outbreaks.Advances in biological regulation · 2022Article
- An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- An ensemblemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- VSHR: A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of Second-Wave COVID-19 Epidemics in Malaysia.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- Predictive models for COVID-19 cases, deaths and recoveries in Algeria.Results in physics · 2021Article
- A Short-Term Prediction Model at the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Multisource Urban Data.IEEE transactions on computational social systems · 2021Article
- Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2021Article
- A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015-2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
- Measuring differences between phenomenological growth models applied to epidemiology.Mathematical biosciences · 2021Article
- Monitoring the impact of Movement Control Order (MCO) in flattening the cummulative daily cases curve of Covid-19 in Malaysia: A generalized logistic growth modeling approach.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Robust estimation of diagnostic rate and real incidence of COVID-19 for European policymakers.PloS one · 2021Article
- Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic With Multi-Population and Control Strategies in the United States.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The appearance and fast spreading of Covid-19 took the international community by surprise. Collaboration between researchers, public health workers, and politicians has been established to deal with the epidemic. One important contribution from researchers in epidemiology is the analysis of trends so that both the current state and short-term future trends can be carefully evaluated. Gompertz model has been shown to correctly describe the dynamics of cumulative confirmed cases, since it is characterized by a decrease in growth rate showing the effect of control measures. Thus, it provides a way to systematically quantify the Covid-19 spreading velocity and it allows short-term predictions and longer-term estimations. This model has been employed to fit the cumulative cases of Covid-19 from several European countries. Results show that there are systematic differences in spreading velocity among countries. The model predictions provide a reliable picture of the short-term evolution in countries that are in the initial stages of the Covid-19 outbreak, and may permit researchers to uncover some characteristics of the long-term evolution. These predictions can also be generalized to calculate short-term hospital and intensive care units (ICU) requirements.
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