ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2021
Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.
- Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemicThe Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Hotspot model shows how location-based superspreading accelerates and reshapes epidemics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Covid19Vaxplorer: a free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Comparison Tool.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Clinical evaluation of DIAGNOVIR SARS-CoV-2 ultra-rapid antigen test performance compared to PCR-based testing.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Geoepidemiological perspective on COVID-19 pandemic review, an insight into the global impact.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy.PLOS digital health · 2022Article
- Improving vaccination coverage and offering vaccine to all school-age children allowed uninterrupted in-person schooling in King County, WA: Modeling analysis.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2022Article
- Article
- School and community reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Effect of Clustering Nursing Care on Spreading COVID-19 Infection Among Nurses: A Retrospective Study.International journal of general medicine · 2022Article
- One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Model-driven mitigation measures for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Article
- COVID-19 vaccines that reduce symptoms but do not block infection need higher coverage and faster rollout to achieve population impact.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A COVID-19 Epidemic Model Predicting the Effectiveness of Vaccination in the US.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
- A Machine Learning Approach as an Aid for Early COVID-19 Detection.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn late March 2020, a "Stay Home, Stay Healthy" order was issued in Washington State in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 1, a 4-phase reopening plan began. We investigated whether adjunctive prevention strategies would allow less restrictive physical distancing to avoid second epidemic waves and secure safe school reopening.
methodsWe developed a mathematical model, stratifying the population by age, infection status and treatment status to project SARS-CoV-2 transmission during and after the reopening period. The model was parameterized with demographic and contact data from King County, WA and calibrated to confirmed cases, deaths and epidemic peak timing. Adjunctive prevention interventions were simulated assuming different levels of pre-COVID physical interactions (pC_PI) restored.
resultsThe best model fit estimated ~35% pC_PI under the lockdown which prevented ~17,000 deaths by May 15. Gradually restoring 75% pC_PI for all age groups between May 15-July 15 would have resulted in ~350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining <45% pC_PI was required with current testing practices to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. Increased testing, isolation of symptomatic infections, and contact tracing permitted 60% pC_PI without significant increases in daily deaths before November and allowed opening of schools with <15 daily deaths. Inpatient antiviral treatment was predicted to reduce deaths significantly without lowering cases or hospitalizations.
conclusionsWe predict that widespread testing, contact tracing and case isolation would allow relaxation of physical distancing, as well as opening of schools, without a surge in local cases and deaths.
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