ArticleAIMS public health2020
Generalized Richards model for predicting COVID-19 dynamics in Saudi Arabia based on particle swarm optimization Algorithm.
Article in AIMS public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.International transactions in operational research : a journal of The International Federation of Operational Research Societies · 2022Article
- Time-Series Analysis and Healthcare Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- EKF-SIRD model algorithm for predicting the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading dynamics.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Differential evolution and particle swarm optimization against COVID-19.Artificial intelligence review · 2022Article
- A particle swarm optimization approach for predicting the number of COVID-19 deaths.Scientific reports · 2021Review
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, demographic, social, and climatic factors on the initial growth rate of COVID-19: A cross-country study.The Science of the total environment · 2021Article
- Bertalanffy-Pütter models for avian growth.PloS one · 2021Article
- Optimization in the Context of COVID-19 Prediction and Control: A Literature Review.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
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Abstract
COVID-19 pandemic is spreading around the world becoming thus a serious concern for health, economic and social systems worldwide. In such situation, predicting as accurately as possible the future dynamics of the virus is a challenging problem for scientists and decision-makers. In this paper, four phenomenological epidemic models as well as Suspected-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model are investigated for predicting the cumulative number of infected cases in Saudi Arabia in addition to the probable end-date of the outbreak. The prediction problem is formulated as an optimization framework and solved using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. The Generalized Richards Model (GRM) has been found to be the best one in achieving two objectives: first, fitting the collected data (covering 223 days between March 2
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