Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33287854›Full record

ArticleJournal of translational medicine2020

Predicting 30-days mortality for MIMIC-III patients with sepsis-3: a machine learning approach using XGboost.

Nianzong Hou, Mingzhe Li, Lu He, Bing Xie, Lin Wang, Rumin Zhang, Yong Yu, Xiaodong Sun, Zhengsheng Pan, Kai Wang

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of translational medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 324 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
324citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
31.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

324 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 582 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Article
  5. Graph representation and learning for drug administration prediction.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article

264 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Nianzong HouDepartment of Hand and Foot Surgery, Zibo Central Hospital, Shandong First Medical University, Zibo, 255036, Shandong, China.
Mingzhe LiIndependent researcher, bs20m2l@leeds.ac.uk, Leeds, LS29JT, UK.
Lu HeInstitute of Medicine and Nursing, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, Hubei, China.
Bing XieDepartment of Hand and Foot Surgery, Zibo Central Hospital, Shandong First Medical University, Zibo, 255036, Shandong, China.
Lin WangDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Zibo Central Hospital, Shandong First Medical University , Zibo, 255036, Shandong, China.
Rumin ZhangDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Zibo Central Hospital, Shandong First Medical University , Zibo, 255036, Shandong, China.
Yong YuDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Zibo Central Hospital, Shandong First Medical University , Zibo, 255036, Shandong, China.
Xiaodong SunFengnan District Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital of Tangshan City, Tangshan, 063300, Hebei, China.
Zhengsheng PanDepartment of Urology Surgery, Zibo Central Hospital, Shandong First Medical University , Zibo, 255036, China.
Kai WangDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Zibo Central Hospital, Shandong First Medical University , Zibo, 255036, Shandong, China. wangkaiicu@163.com.ORCID 0000-0002-6369-8376
Central Hospital of Zibo · CNHubei University of Medicine · CNTangshan People's Hospital · CNUniversity of Leeds · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSepsis is a significant cause of mortality in-hospital, especially in ICU patients. Early prediction of sepsis is essential, as prompt and appropriate treatment can improve survival outcomes. Machine learning methods are flexible prediction algorithms with potential advantages over conventional regression and scoring system. The aims of this study were to develop a machine learning approach using XGboost to predict the 30-days mortality for MIMIC-III Patients with sepsis-3 and to determine whether such model performs better than traditional prediction models.

methodsUsing the MIMIC-III v1.4, we identified patients with sepsis-3. The data was split into two groups based on death or survival within 30 days and variables, selected based on clinical significance and availability by stepwise analysis, were displayed and compared between groups. Three predictive models including conventional logistic regression model, SAPS-II score prediction model and XGBoost algorithm model were constructed by R software. Then, the performances of the three models were tested and compared by AUCs of the receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curve analysis. At last, nomogram and clinical impact curve were used to validate the model.

resultsA total of 4559 sepsis-3 patients are included in the study, in which, 889 patients were death and 3670 survival within 30 days, respectively. According to the results of AUCs (0.819 [95% CI 0.800-0.838], 0.797 [95% CI 0.781-0.813] and 0.857 [95% CI 0.839-0.876]) and decision curve analysis for the three models, the XGboost model performs best. The risk nomogram and clinical impact curve verify that the XGboost model possesses significant predictive value.

conclusionsUsing machine learning technique by XGboost, more significant prediction model can be built. This XGboost model may prove clinically useful and assist clinicians in tailoring precise management and therapy for the patients with sepsis-3.

Indexed as

Machine LearningSepsisHospital MortalityHumansLogistic ModelsROC CurveLogistic regressionMachine learningMIMIC-IIISAPS-II scoreSepsis-3Xgboost

Identifiers

PMID33287854
PMCPMC7720497
OpenAlexW3111698685

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.