A mortality risk score for heart transplants after contemporary ventricular assist device bridging.

backgroundWe sought to derive a risk score for 1-year mortality following orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) in patients bridged with a contemporary centrifugal left ventricular assist device (LVAD).

methodsAdult patients (≥18 years) in the United Network for Organ Sharing database undergoing OHT between 2010 and 2019 who were bridged with a HeartWare or HeartMate III device were included. Derivation and validation cohorts were randomly assigned with a 2:1 ratio. Threshold analysis and multivariable logistic regression were utilized to obtain adjusted odds ratios for 1-year post-OHT mortality. A risk score was generated using these adjusted odds ratios in the derivation cohort and the predictive performance of the composite index was evaluated in the validation set.

resultsA total of 3434 patients were identified. In the derivation cohort, the mean age was 53.5 ± 12.1 years and 1758 (76.8%) were male; 1789 (78.1%) were bridged with a HeartWare device. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that recipient age ≥50 years, bilirubin level ≥2.4 mg/dl, ischemic time ≥4 h, and preoperative hemodialysis predicted 1-year post-transplant mortality. Stratification into risk groups in the validation cohort revealed significant differences in postoperative renal failure, stroke, and short-term mortality. One-year post-transplant mortality was 5%, 6.7%, and 14.8% in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories, respectively (p < .001).

conclusionsAmong patients bridged to OHT with newer generation centrifugal LVADs, older age, increasing bilirubin, longer ischemic time, and pre-OHT dialysis independently predicted post-transplant mortality. The composite risk score based on these factors may assist in patient selection and prognostication in those supported with contemporary LVADs.