ArticleScientific reports2020
Time dynamics of COVID-19.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- The Mediating Role of Human Mobility in Temporal-Lagged Relationships Between Risk Perception and COVID-19 Dynamics in Taiwan: Statistical Modeling for Comparing the Pre-Omicron and Omicron Eras.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Understanding spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 incidence in Portugal: A functional data analysis from August 2020 to March 2022.PloS one · 2024Article
- Application of big data and artificial intelligence in epidemic surveillance and containment.Intelligent medicine · 2023Review
- Point process models for COVID-19 cases and deaths.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Learning delay dynamics for multivariate stochastic processes, with application to the prediction of the growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the United States.Journal of mathematical analysis and applications · 2022Article
- Social distancing causally impacts the spread of SARS-CoV-2: a U.S. nationwide event study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Statistical inference using GLEaM model with spatial heterogeneity and correlation between regions.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Exploring the risk factors of COVID-19 Delta variant in the United States based on Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Article
- The dynamics of ideology drift among U.S. Supreme Court justices: A functional data analysis.PloS one · 2022Article
- Discovering spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A review of mathematical model-based scenario analysis and interventions for COVID-19.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2021Review
- Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- COUnty aggRegation mixup AuGmEntation (COURAGE) COVID-19 prediction.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Associations between Google Search Trends for Symptoms and COVID-19 Confirmed and Death Cases in the United States.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Article
- Short-term Covid-19 forecast for latecomers.International journal of forecastingArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We apply tools from functional data analysis to model cumulative trajectories of COVID-19 cases across countries, establishing a framework for quantifying and comparing cases and deaths across countries longitudinally. It emerges that a country's trajectory during an initial first month "priming period" largely determines how the situation unfolds subsequently. We also propose a method for forecasting case counts, which takes advantage of the common, latent information in the entire sample of curves, instead of just the history of a single country. Our framework facilitates to quantify the effects of demographic covariates and social mobility on doubling rates and case fatality rates through a time-varying regression model. Decreased workplace mobility is associated with lower doubling rates with a roughly 2 week delay, and case fatality rates exhibit a positive feedback pattern.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.