Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33273460›Full record

ArticleNature communications2020

Excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe.

Cornelius Senf, Allan Buras, Christian S Zang, Anja Rammig, Rupert Seidl

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 87 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
87citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

87 citing papers in PubMed.

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  6. European beech reproduction is not reduced by drought, including the 2003, 2018, and 2022 extremes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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27 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Cornelius SenfEcosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany. cornelius.senf@tum.de.
Allan BurasLand Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany.
Christian S ZangLand Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany.
Anja RammigLand Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany.
Rupert SeidlEcosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-3338-3402

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Pulses of tree mortality caused by drought have been reported recently in forests around the globe, but large-scale quantitative evidence is lacking for Europe. Analyzing high-resolution annual satellite-based canopy mortality maps from 1987 to 2016 we here show that excess forest mortality (i.e., canopy mortality exceeding the long-term mortality trend) is significantly related to drought across continental Europe. The relationship between water availability and mortality showed threshold behavior, with excess mortality increasing steeply when the integrated climatic water balance from March to July fell below -1.6 standard deviations of its long-term average. For -3.0 standard deviations the probability of excess canopy mortality was 91.6% (83.8-97.5%). Overall, drought caused approximately 500,000 ha of excess forest mortality between 1987 and 2016 in Europe. We here provide evidence that drought is an important driver of tree mortality at the continental scale, and suggest that a future increase in drought could trigger widespread tree mortality in Europe.

Indexed as

DroughtsForestsClimate ChangeEuropeGeographyModels, TheoreticalProbabilityWaterWater

Identifiers

PMID33273460
PMCPMC7713373

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.