ArticleMalaria journal2020
Estimating malaria incidence from routine health facility-based surveillance data in Uganda.
Article in Malaria journal, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- Impact of the Introduction of a Package of Diagnostic Tools, Diagnostic Algorithm, and Training and Communication on Outpatient Acute Fever Case Management at 3 Diverse Sites in Uganda: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Trial
- Multiple local PfDHFR I164L haplotype expansions drive Plasmodium falciparum antifolate resistance in Uganda.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Attitude and practices of district-level HMIS managers towards malaria routine reporting in Uganda: a 2024 cross-sectional study.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Impact of indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated nets on malaria burden in 8 districts in West Nile and Acholi regions, Uganda: a quasi-experimental study.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Concordance of data on key malaria indicators between DHIS2 and source documents, and influencing factors at public primary health facilities in eastern Uganda: a mixed methods study.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Mapping and quantifying travel time to define health facility catchment areas in Blantyre city in Malawi.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- A scoping review of the methods used to estimate health facility catchment populations for child health indicators in sub-Saharan Africa.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Evaluating the impact of two next-generation long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria incidence in Uganda: an interrupted time-series analysis using routine health facility data.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Quality of routine malaria data captured at primary health facilities in the Hohoe Municipality, Ghana.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP2) - Effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) treated with pyrethroid plus pyriproxyfen vs LLINs treated with pyrethroid plus piperonyl butoxide in Uganda: A cluster-randomised trial.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Descriptive, Hospital-Based, 10-Year Study of Malaria Transmission in Goa, a Southwest Indian State in the Malaria Elimination Phase.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Time series analysis of malaria cases to assess the impact of various interventions over the last three decades and forecasting malaria in India towards the 2030 elimination goals.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Mapping malaria incidence using routine health facility surveillance data in Uganda.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- East Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research: Impact on Malaria Policy in Uganda.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2022Review
- Malaria outbreak facilitated by engagement in activities near swamps following increased rainfall and limited preventive measures: Oyam District, Uganda.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Stratification of malaria incidence in Papua New Guinea (2011-2019): Contribution towards a sub-national control policy.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
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Abstract
backgroundAccurate measures of malaria incidence are essential to track progress and target high-risk populations. While health management information system (HMIS) data provide counts of malaria cases, quantifying the denominator for incidence using these data is challenging because catchment areas and care-seeking behaviours are not well defined. This study's aim was to estimate malaria incidence using HMIS data by adjusting the population denominator accounting for travel time to the health facility.
methodsOutpatient data from two public health facilities in Uganda (Kihihi and Nagongera) over a 3-year period (2011-2014) were used to model the relationship between travel time from patient village of residence (available for each individual) to the facility and the relative probability of attendance using Poisson generalized additive models. Outputs from the model were used to generate a weighted population denominator for each health facility and estimate malaria incidence. Among children aged 6 months to 11 years, monthly HMIS-derived incidence estimates, with and without population denominators weighted by probability of attendance, were compared with gold standard measures of malaria incidence measured in prospective cohorts.
resultsA total of 48,898 outpatient visits were recorded across the two sites over the study period. HMIS incidence correlated with cohort incidence over time at both study sites (correlation in Kihihi = 0.64, p < 0.001; correlation in Nagongera = 0.34, p = 0.045). HMIS incidence measures with denominators unweighted by probability of attendance underestimated cohort incidence aggregated over the 3 years in Kihihi (0.5 cases per person-year (PPY) vs 1.7 cases PPY) and Nagongera (0.3 cases PPY vs 3.0 cases PPY). HMIS incidence measures with denominators weighted by probability of attendance were closer to cohort incidence, but remained underestimates (1.1 cases PPY in Kihihi and 1.4 cases PPY in Nagongera).
conclusionsAlthough malaria incidence measured using HMIS underestimated incidence measured in cohorts, even when adjusting for probability of attendance, HMIS surveillance data are a promising and scalable source for tracking relative changes in malaria incidence over time, particularly when the population denominator can be estimated by incorporating information on village of residence.
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