Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33267823›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2020

Estimating transmission dynamics and serial interval of the first wave of COVID-19 infections under different control measures: a statistical analysis in Tunisia from February 29 to May 5, 2020.

Khouloud Talmoudi, Mouna Safer, Hejer Letaief, Aicha Hchaichi, Chahida Harizi, Sonia Dhaouadi, Sondes Derouiche, Ilhem Bouaziz, Donia Gharbi, Nourhene Najar and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
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  10. Study of the Deep Processes of COVID-19 in Russia: Finding Ways to Identify Preventive Measures.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
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  13. Mobility patterns and COVID growth: Moderating role of country culture.International journal of intercultural relations : IJIR · 2022
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  15. Review
  16. Impact of contact tracing, respect of isolation, and lockdown in reducing the number of cases infected with COVID-19. Case study: Tunisia's response from March 22 to May 4, 2020.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Khouloud TalmoudiNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia. talmoudi.khouloud@gmail.com.
Mouna SaferNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Hejer LetaiefNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Aicha HchaichiNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Chahida HariziDepartment of Epidemiology and Statistics, Abderrahman Mami Hospital, Ariana, Tunisia.
Sonia DhaouadiNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Sondes DerouicheNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Ilhem BouazizNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Donia GharbiNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Nourhene NajarDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia.
Molka OsmanNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Ines CherifDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia.
Rym MlallekhDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia.
Oumaima Ben-AyedDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia.
Yosr AyediDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia.
Leila BouabidNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Souha BougatefNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Nissaf Bouafif Ép Ben-AlayaNational Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia.
Mohamed Kouni ChahedDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, Tunis El Manar University, Tunis, Tunisia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDescribing transmission dynamics of the outbreak and impact of intervention measures are critical to planning responses to future outbreaks and providing timely information to guide policy makers decision. We estimate serial interval (SI) and temporal reproduction number (R

methodsWe collected data of investigations and contact tracing between March 1, 2020 and May 5, 2020 as well as illness onset data during the period February 29-May 5, 2020 from National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia. Maximum likelihood (ML) approach is used to estimate dynamics of R

resultsFour hundred ninety-one of infector-infectee pairs were involved, with 14.46% reported pre-symptomatic transmission. SI follows Gamma distribution with mean 5.30 days [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.66-5.95] and standard deviation 0.26 [95% CI 0.23-0.30]. Also, we estimated large changes in R

conclusionsOverall, our findings highlight contribution of interventions to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Contact TracingCOVID-19HumansIncidenceQuarantineResearch DesignTunisiaCoronavirusLockdownReproduction numberSerial intervalStatistical modelsTunisia

Identifiers

PMID33267823
PMCPMC7708891

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.