Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33262808›Full record

ReviewNature climate change2020

Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework.

Brian C O'Neill, Timothy R Carter, Kristie Ebi, Paula A Harrison, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Kasper Kok, Elmar Kriegler, Benjamin L Preston, Keywan Riahi, Jana Sillmann and 10 more

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Nature climate change, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
53citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

53 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Post-establishment environmental suitability ofOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026
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  17. Climate change impacts on livestock in Brazil.International journal of biometeorology · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Brian C O'NeillPardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7505-8897
Timothy R CarterFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland.ORCID 0000-0002-4026-8859
Kristie EbiCenter for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4746-8236
Paula A HarrisonUK Centre of Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9873-3338
Eric Kemp-BenedictStockholm Environment Institute, Somerville, MA USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5794-7172
Kasper KokWageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-3307-2647
Benjamin L PrestonRAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA USA.
Keywan RiahiInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Jana SillmannCenter for International Climate Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway.ORCID 0000-0002-0219-5345
Bas J van RuijvenInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-1232-5892
Detlef van VuurenNetherland Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-0398-2831
David CarlislePardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO USA.
Cecilia CondeCenter of Atmospheric Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico (CCA-UNAM), Mexico City, Mexico.
Jan FuglestvedtCenter for International Climate Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway.ORCID 0000-0001-6140-8374
Carole GreenPardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO USA.
Tomoko HasegawaRitsumeikan University, Kasuatsu, Japan.ORCID 0000-0003-2456-5789
Julia LeiningerGerman Development Institute, Bonn, Germany.
Seth MonteithClimateWorks Foundation, San Francisco, CA USA.
Ramon Pichs-MadrugaCentre for World Economy Studies (CIEM), Havana, Cuba.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

Indexed as

Climate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationProjection and predictionSocioeconomic scenariosSustainability

Identifiers

PMID33262808
PMCPMC7688299

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.