ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Awareness-driven behavior changes can shift the shape of epidemics away from peaks and toward plateaus, shoulders, and oscillations.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 77 papers.
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77 citing papers in PubMed.
- Memory mechanisms for behavioural change in Bayesian individual-level spatial epidemic models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- The paradox of neglecting changes in behavior: How standard epidemic models misestimate both transmissibility and final epidemic size.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Estimating the effect of self-protection on transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany in 2021: a modelling study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- The role of receptor binding and immunity in SARS-CoV-2 fitness landscape: A modeling study.iScience · 2026Article
- Phase Boundaries and Critical Transitions in Coupled Epidemic-Behavioral Systems.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- A modelling approach to characterise the interaction between behavioral response and epidemics: A study based on COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Adaptive human behavior and delays in information availability autonomously modulate epidemic waves.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Behavior-driven forecasts of neighborhood-level COVID-19 spread in New York City.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Prediction of U.S. daily mask wearing and social distancing using psychologically valid agents during three waves of COVID-19.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Existence and stability of equilibria in infectious disease dynamics with behavioral feedback.Physical review. E · 2025Article
- Social dilemma of nonpharmaceutical interventions: Determinants of dynamic compliance and behavioral shifts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- A framework for counterfactual analysis, strategy evaluation, and control of epidemics using reproduction number estimates.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Host behaviour driven by awareness of infection risk amplifies the chance of superspreading events.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Diagnostic testing and the evolution of detection avoidance by pathogens.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2024Article
- Bayesian modeling of dynamic behavioral change during an epidemic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Stabilizing the return to normal behavior in an epidemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
17 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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4 authors.
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 1,000,000 reported deaths globally, of which more than 200,000 have been reported in the United States as of October 1, 2020. Public health interventions have had significant impacts in reducing transmission and in averting even more deaths. Nonetheless, in many jurisdictions, the decline of cases and fatalities after apparent epidemic peaks has not been rapid. Instead, the asymmetric decline in cases appears, in most cases, to be consistent with plateau- or shoulder-like phenomena-a qualitative observation reinforced by a symmetry analysis of US state-level fatality data. Here we explore a model of fatality-driven awareness in which individual protective measures increase with death rates. In this model, fast increases to the peak are often followed by plateaus, shoulders, and lag-driven oscillations. The asymmetric shape of model-predicted incidence and fatality curves is consistent with observations from many jurisdictions. Yet, in contrast to model predictions, we find that population-level mobility metrics usually increased from low levels before fatalities reached an initial peak. We show that incorporating fatigue and long-term behavior change can reconcile the apparent premature relaxation of mobility reductions and help understand when post-peak dynamics are likely to lead to a resurgence of cases.
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