ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 53 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
53 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A cosmopolitan inversion facilitates seasonal adaptation in overwintering Drosophila.Genetics · 2024Pooled it
- High thermal plasticity, low heritability and constant directional selection on breeding phenology in a viviparous ectotherm.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- Denning Phenology Mediates Sea-Ice Loss Impacts on Early Reproductive Success in Polar Bears.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Beyond first clutches: Second broods reshape selection on breeding timing in forest and urban great tits.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- Phenological plasticity enables thermal homeostasis in a wild bird population.Science advances · 2026Article
- Chromosome-specific drift under stabilizing selection generates polygenic barriers to sex chromosome turnover.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Convective rainfall drives behavioral shifts across multiple foraging scales in breeding seabirds.Movement ecology · 2026Article
- Early-life stasis in partial seasonal migration is underpinned by among-cohort variation in migratory plasticity and selective disappearance.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- Evaluating phenotypic plasticity of reproductive traits among Korean rice cultivars under diverse climatic conditions.Frontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Divergent and stabilizing selection shape the phenotypic space of Arabidopsis thaliana.PLoS biology · 2025Article
- Estimating (Non)Linear Selection on Reaction Norms: A General Framework for Labile Traits.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Using Fitness Surfaces to Better Link Conservation Breeding Programmes With Wild Population Recovery.Molecular ecology · 2025Review
- Life-history trade-offs and reproductive strategies in Tasmanian devils following disease-induced population decline.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Adapting to an increasingly stressful environment: Experimental evidence for 'micro-evolutionary priming'.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- Latitudinal clines in the phenology of floral display associated with adaptive evolution during a biological invasion.American journal of botany · 2025Article
- Detecting context dependence in the expression of life history trade-offs.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- Impacts of limits to adaptation on population and community persistence in a changing environment.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Review
- Article
- Heat shock protein gene expression varies among populations but does not strongly track recent environmental conditions: implications for biomarker development.Frontiers in physiology · 2025Article
- Unifying approaches from statistical genetics and phylogenetics for mapping phenotypes in structured populations.PLoS biology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
34 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.