ArticleBMC biology2020
Prediction of the incubation period for COVID-19 and future virus disease outbreaks.
Article in BMC biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- Comprehensive estimation for the length and dispersion of COVID-19 incubation period: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Infection · 2022Pooled it
- In silico prediction of pathogen's pandemic potential using the viral trait assessment for pandemics (ViTAP) model.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- The Last Universal Common Ancestor of Ribosome-Encoding Organisms: Portrait of LUCA.Journal of molecular evolution · 2024Review
- Epidemiological study of Newcastle disease in chicken farms in China, 2019-2022.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Replacement dynamics and the pathogenesis of the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and quarantine assessment of imported international COVID-19 cases, March to December 2020, Chengdu, China.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Characteristics of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron BA.2 Subvariant in Jilin, China from March to May 2022.Journal of translational internal medicine · 2022Article
- The Association Between Clinical Severity and Incubation Period of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variants: Retrospective Observational Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Observational
- Spatio-temporal spread and evolution of influenza A (H7N9) viruses.Frontiers in microbiology · 2022Article
- Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study.BMC medicine · 2021Article
- Advances and insights in the diagnosis of viral infections.Journal of nanobiotechnology · 2021Review
- Scenario analysis of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Malaysia with the possibility of reinfection and limited medical resources scenarios.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
- Analysis of COVID-19 pandemics in Kazakhstan.Journal of research in health sciences · 2021Article
- In pursuit of the right tail for the COVID-19 incubation period.Public health · 2021Review
- Incorporating Machine Learning into Established Bioinformatics Frameworks.International journal of molecular sciences · 2021Review
- A syndromic surveillance tool to detect anomalous clusters of COVID-19 symptoms in the United States.Scientific reports · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundA crucial factor in mitigating respiratory viral outbreaks is early determination of the duration of the incubation period and, accordingly, the required quarantine time for potentially exposed individuals. At the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, optimization of quarantine regimes becomes paramount for public health, societal well-being, and global economy. However, biological factors that determine the duration of the virus incubation period remain poorly understood.
resultsWe demonstrate a strong positive correlation between the length of the incubation period and disease severity for a wide range of human pathogenic viruses. Using a machine learning approach, we develop a predictive model that accurately estimates, solely from several virus genome features, in particular, the number of protein-coding genes and the GC content, the incubation time ranges for diverse human pathogenic RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2. The predictive approach described here can directly help in establishing the appropriate quarantine durations and thus facilitate controlling future outbreaks.
conclusionsThe length of the incubation period in viral diseases strongly correlates with disease severity, emphasizing the biological and epidemiological importance of the incubation period. Perhaps, surprisingly, incubation times of pathogenic RNA viruses can be accurately predicted solely from generic features of virus genomes. Elucidation of the biological underpinnings of the connections between these features and disease progression can be expected to reveal key aspects of virus pathogenesis.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.