ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Pooled it
- A hybrid framework for compartmental models enabling simulation-based inference.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Estimation of end-of-outbreak probabilities in the presence of delayed and incomplete case reporting.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Using real-time modelling to inform the 2017 Ebola outbreak response in DR Congo.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Optimizing the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration: Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Science advances · 2024Article
- Simple mathematical model for predicting COVID-19 outbreaks in Japan based on epidemic waves with a cyclical trend.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Exact calculation of end-of-outbreak probabilities using contact tracing data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- A quantitative method to project the probability of the end of an epidemic: Application to the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, 2020.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Real-time estimation of the epidemic reproduction number: Scoping review of the applications and challenges.PLOS digital health · 2022Article
- Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2022Article
- Fine-scale estimation of effective reproduction numbers for dengue surveillance.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Deciphering early-warning signals of SARS-CoV-2 elimination and resurgence from limited data at multiple scales.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic waves.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Sub-spreading events limit the reliable elimination of heterogeneous epidemics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Localized end-of-outbreak determination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): examples from clusters in Japan.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021Article
- How epidemics end.Centaurus; international magazine of the history of science and medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We derive and validate a novel and analytic method for estimating the probability that an epidemic has been eliminated (i.e. that no future local cases will emerge) in real time. When this probability crosses 0.95 an outbreak can be declared over with 95% confidence. Our method is easy to compute, only requires knowledge of the incidence curve and the serial interval distribution, and evaluates the statistical lifetime of the outbreak of interest. Using this approach, we show how the time-varying under-reporting of infected cases will artificially inflate the inferred probability of elimination, leading to premature (false-positive) end-of-epidemic declarations. Contrastingly, we prove that incorrectly identifying imported cases as local will deceptively decrease this probability, resulting in delayed (false-negative) declarations. Failing to sustain intensive surveillance during the later phases of an epidemic can therefore substantially mislead policymakers on when it is safe to remove travel bans or relax quarantine and social distancing advisories. World Health Organisation guidelines recommend fixed (though disease-specific) waiting times for end-of-epidemic declarations that cannot accommodate these variations. Consequently, there is an unequivocal need for more active and specialised metrics for reliably identifying the conclusion of an epidemic.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.