ArticleBiometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift2021
An ensemble approach to short-term forecast of COVID-19 intensive care occupancy in Italian regions.
Article in Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Comparison between simulated scenarios and Swedish COVID-19 cases throughout the pandemic.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Forecasting Hospital Room and Ward Occupancy Using Static and Dynamic Information Concurrently: Retrospective Single-Center Cohort Study.JMIR medical informatics · 2024Article
- Automatic Forecast of Intensive Care Unit Admissions: The Experience During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy.Journal of medical systems · 2023Article
- Dynamic fair balancing of COVID-19 patients over hospitals based on forecasts of bed occupancy.Omega · 2023Article
- [Forecasting models to guide intensive care COVID-19 capacities in Germany].Medizinische Klinik, Intensivmedizin und Notfallmedizin · 2023Article
- A multistate model and its standalone tool to predict hospital and ICU occupancy by patients with COVID-19.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Short-term forecasts of Monkeypox cases in multiple countries: keep calm and don't panic.Journal of medical virology · 2023Article
- Modeling COVID-19 hospital admissions and occupancy in the Netherlands.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Two years of COVID-19 pandemic: The Italian experience of Statgroup-19.Environmetrics · 2022Article
- An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- An ensemblemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Spatio-temporal modelling of COVID-19 incident cases using Richards' curve: An application to the Italian regions.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- Clustering spatio-temporal series of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Europe.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- A spatio-temporal model based on discrete latent variables for the analysis of COVID-19 incidence.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Endemic-epidemic models to understand COVID-19 spatio-temporal evolution.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- Covid-19 in Italy: Modelling, communications, and collaborations.Significance (Oxford, England) · 2022Article
- A D-vine copula-based quantile regression model with spatial dependence for COVID-19 infection rate in Italy.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- A COVINDEX based on a GAM beta regression model with an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.Statistical methods & applications · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
The availability of intensive care beds during the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short-term prediction of COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) beds, that has proved very effective during the Italian outbreak in February to May 2020. Our approach is based on an optimal ensemble of two simple methods: a generalized linear mixed regression model, which pools information over different areas, and an area-specific nonstationary integer autoregressive methodology. Optimal weights are estimated using a leave-last-out rationale. The approach has been set up and validated during the first epidemic wave in Italy. A report of its performance for predicting ICU occupancy at regional level is included.
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