Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33250548›Full record

ArticleJournal of classification2020

ROC and AUC with a Binary Predictor: a Potentially Misleading Metric.

John Muschelli

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of classification, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 111 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
111citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

111 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Prevalence of Error Types of Synthesized Contingency Assessments.Behavior analysis (Washington, D.C.) · 2026
    Article
  6. Review
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  11. Observational
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  20. Construction and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma using multimodal clinical data: a single-center, retrospective study.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
    Article

51 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

John MuschelliDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N Wolfe St, Baltimore, MD 21205.

Funding

MISTIE III_ Lead Grant_ Cluster Application for the Clinical Coordinating CenterU01NS080824 · NINDS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI HANLEY, DANIEL F · 2013 to 2017
$23.2M
Statistical Methods for Multilevel Multivariate Functional StudiesR01NS060910 · NINDS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Ciprian M Crainiceanu · 2009 to 2026
$8.3M
NINDS NIH HHS R01 NS060910NINDS NIH HHS U01 NS080824
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In analysis of binary outcomes, the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve is heavily used to show the performance of a model or algorithm. The ROC curve is informative about the performance over a series of thresholds and can be summarized by the area under the curve (AUC), a single number. When a

Indexed as

area under the curveaucRroc

Identifiers

PMID33250548
PMCPMC7695228

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.