Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33249881›Full record

ArticleCirculation2021

Linear and Nonlinear Mendelian Randomization Analyses of the Association Between Diastolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Events: The J-Curve Revisited.

Marios Arvanitis, Guanghao Qi, Deepak L Bhatt, Wendy S Post, Nilanjan Chatterjee, Alexis Battle, John W McEvoy

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Circulation, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
62citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
13.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

62 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 118 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Guideline
  3. Guideline
  4. Trial
  5. Trial
  6. Article
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  8. Article
  9. Diastolic blood pressure as a predictor of short-term mortality in infective endocarditis.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025
    Article
  10. Brazilian Guidelines of Hypertension - 2025.Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia · 2025
    Article
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  12. Article
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  14. Article
  15. Time-varying association between blood pressure and malignant brain edema after large hemispheric infarction: a prospective cohort study.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2025
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and clinical outcomes in peritoneal dialysis - based on machine learning algorithms.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2025
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Epigenomics and transcriptomics association study of blood pressure and incident diagnosis of hypertension in twins.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2025
    Article

2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Marios ArvanitisDepartment of Medicine, Division of Cardiology (M.A., W.S.P., J.W.M.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Guanghao QiDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (G.Q., N.C.).
Deepak L BhattDepartment of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (D.L.B.).
Wendy S PostDepartment of Medicine, Division of Cardiology (M.A., W.S.P., J.W.M.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Nilanjan ChatterjeeDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (G.Q., N.C.).
Alexis Battle *Department of Biomedical Engineering (M.A., A.B.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
John W McEvoy *Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology (M.A., W.S.P., J.W.M.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Johns Hopkins University · USHarvard University · US

Funding

PATHOPHYSIOLOGY OF MYOCARDIAL DISEASEST32HL007227 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Chulan Kwon, WENDY S POST · 1985 to 2026
$21.2M
Robust Methods for Polygenic Analysis to Inform Disease Etiology and Enhance Risk PredictionR01HG010480 · NHGRI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CHATTERJEE, NILANJAN · 2019 to 2023
$2.8M
NHGRI NIH HHS R01 HG010480NHLBI NIH HHS T32 HL007227
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRecent clinical guidelines support intensive blood pressure treatment targets. However, observational data suggest that excessive diastolic blood pressure (DBP) lowering might increase the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), reflecting a J- or U-shaped relationship.

methodsWe analyzed 47 407 participants from 5 cohorts (median age, 60 years). First, to corroborate previous observational analyses, we used traditional statistical methods to test the shape of association between DBP and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Second, we created polygenic risk scores of DBP and systolic blood pressure and generated linear Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates for the effect of DBP on CVD. Third, using novel nonlinear MR approaches, we evaluated for nonlinearity in the genetic relationship between DBP and CVD events. Comprehensive MR interrogation of DBP required us to also model systolic blood pressure, given that the 2 are strongly correlated.

resultsTraditional observational analysis of our cohorts suggested a J-shaped association between DBP and MI. By contrast, linear MR analyses demonstrated an adverse effect of increasing DBP increments on CVD outcomes, including MI (MI hazard ratio, 1.07 per unit mm Hg increase in DBP;

conclusionsIn this analysis of the genetic effect of DBP, we found no evidence for a nonlinear J- or U-shaped relationship between DBP and adverse CVD outcomes; including MI.

Indexed as

AgedBlood PressureCardiovascular DiseasesDatabases, FactualFemaleGenotypeHumansMaleMendelian Randomization AnalysisMiddle AgedOdds RatioProportional Hazards ModelsRisk Factorsblood pressurediastoleMendelian randomization analysis

Identifiers

PMID33249881
PMCPMC7920937
OpenAlexW3109570940

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceTDM
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.