Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33247085›Full record

ArticleNature communications2020

A multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis investigating smoking and alcohol consumption in oral and oropharyngeal cancer.

Mark Gormley, Tom Dudding, Eleanor Sanderson, Richard M Martin, Steven Thomas, Jessica Tyrrell, Andrew R Ness, Paul Brennan, Marcus Munafò, Miranda Pring and 7 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 72 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
72citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
11.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

72 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 138 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  7. Article
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  10. Review
  11. Redefining oropharyngeal cancer in the HPV era: integrating precision medicine and immunotherapeutic frontiers.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
    Review
  12. Article
  13. Observational
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. HPV-driven cancer: from epidemiology to the HPV-driven tumor board proposal, everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2025
    Review
  19. Article
  20. Article

12 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors at 9 institutions in 5 countries.

Mark GormleyMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK. mark.gormley@bristol.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-5733-6304
Tom DuddingMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3756-040X
Eleanor SandersonMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5188-5775
Richard M MartinMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7992-7719
Steven ThomasBristol Dental Hospital and School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS1 2LY, UK.
Jessica TyrrellRD&E Hospital, University of Exeter Medical School, RILD Building, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9256-6065
Andrew R NessUniversity Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust National Institute for Health Research Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS1 3NU, UK.
Paul BrennanGenetic Epidemiology Group, World Health Organization, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.ORCID 0000-0002-0518-8714
Marcus MunafòMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4049-993X
Miranda PringBristol Dental Hospital and School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS1 2LY, UK.
Stefania BocciaSection of Hygiene, University Department of Life Sciences and Public Health, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italia.
Andrew F OlshanDepartment of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA.
Brenda DiergaardeDepartment of Human Genetics, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, and UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, PA, 15260, USA.
Rayjean J HungProsserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health System, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-4486-7496
Geoffrey LiuDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
George Davey SmithMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1407-8314
Rebecca C RichmondMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0574-5071
University of Bristol · GBUniversity Of Bristol Dental Hospital · GBUniversity Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust · GBUniversity of Toronto · CACentre international de recherche sur le cancer · FRUniversità Cattolica del Sacro Cuore · ITUniversity of Exeter · GBUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · USUPMC Hillman Cancer Center · US

Funding

VECTOR CORE FACILITYP30CA047904 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI Jessie Nedrow · 1988 to 2026
$158.0M
WILD TYPE P53-BASED ADJUVANT IMMUNOTHERAPY FOR SCCHNP50CA097190 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI CHRISTOPHER J. BAKKENIST · 2004 to 2026
$49.6M
UNC-CH CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH &SUSCEPTIBILITYP30ES010126 · NIEHS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Melissa A. Troester · 2001 to 2026
$36.3M
Gene Environment Interaction in Head and Neck CancerR01CA090731 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI OLSHAN, ANDREW · 2001 to 2005
$4.6M
The role of germline and somatic DNA mutations in oral and oropharyngeal cancersR01DE025712 · NIDCR · INTERNATIONAL AGENCY FOR RES ON CANCER · PI BRENNAN, PAUL JOSEPH, DIERGAARDE, BRENDA B. · 2017 to 2021
$3.3M
Cancer Research UK 19169Cancer Research UK C18281/A19169Department of Health RP-PG-0707-10034Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/2Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/7Medical Research Council MC_UU_12013/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_12013/2Medical Research Council MC_UU_12013/3NCI NIH HHS P30 CA047904NCI NIH HHS P50 CA097190NCI NIH HHS R01 CA090731NIDCR NIH HHS R01 DE025712NIEHS NIH HHS P30 ES010126Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 220530/Z/20/ZWorld Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The independent effects of smoking and alcohol in head and neck cancer are not clear, given the strong association between these risk factors. Their apparent synergistic effect reported in previous observational studies may also underestimate independent effects. Here we report multivariable Mendelian randomization performed in a two-sample approach using summary data on 6,034 oral/oropharyngeal cases and 6,585 controls from a recent genome-wide association study. Our results demonstrate strong evidence for an independent causal effect of smoking on oral/oropharyngeal cancer (IVW OR 2.6, 95% CI = 1.7, 3.9 per standard deviation increase in lifetime smoking behaviour) and an independent causal effect of alcohol consumption when controlling for smoking (IVW OR 2.1, 95% CI = 1.1, 3.8 per standard deviation increase in drinks consumed per week). This suggests the possibility that the causal effect of alcohol may have been underestimated. However, the extent to which alcohol is modified by smoking requires further investigation.

Indexed as

Mendelian Randomization AnalysisAlcohol DrinkingGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansMouth NeoplasmsMultivariate AnalysisOropharyngeal NeoplasmsPolymorphism, Single NucleotideRisk FactorsSexual PartnersSmoking

Identifiers

PMID33247085
PMCPMC7695733
OpenAlexW3099497048

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.