A Longitudinal Examination of Behavioral Transitions among Young Adult Menthol and Non-Menthol Cigarette Smokers Using a Three-State Markov Model.

introductionYoung adult cigarette smoking behaviors are complex and dynamic. Emerging research suggests a growing rate of switching from non-menthol to menthol cigarettes. Transitions across cigarette smoking states are not well understood. This research longitudinally explores transitions in cigarette smoking behaviors among 18-29 year olds.

methodsWe applied a Markov model to data collected biannually for 1542 initially 18-29 year old young adults (mean age: 20.9 years; SD = 2.6) in Texas, who provided 7021 total observations from Fall 2014 to Spring 2017. All participants were past 30 day menthol or non-menthol cigarette smokers at first observation. We examined transitions across three states of cigarette smoking (menthol, non-menthol, and nonsmoking) and compared predictors of each transition, during young adulthood.

resultsDescriptively, 22.2% of menthol and 14.3% of non-menthol smokers switched products while 25.6% of menthol and 26.0% of non-menthol smokers quit smoking. Among quitters, 20.0% relapsed via menthol and 28.2% relapsed via non-menthol cigarettes. Results from Markov model indicated that Hispanic/Latinos (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 3.69) and Asians (HR: 2.85) were significantly more likely to switch from non-menthol to menthol cigarettes, relative to non-Hispanic whites. Among recent quitters, the use of non-cigarette products was associated with increased risk of relapse via menthol (HR: 1.54) and non-menthol (HR: 1.85) cigarettes.

conclusionA substantial proportion of young adult cigarette smokers transitioned across cigarette smoking states over the course of 2.5 years. Other tobacco use and nicotine dependence were impediments to becoming and remaining a non-smoker. Hispanic/Latinos and Asians, relative to non-Hispanic whites, had greater odds of transitioning from non-menthol smoking to both non-smoking and to menthol smoking. Findings suggest racial/ethnic differences in cigarette smoking transitions during young adulthood. IMPLICATIONS: This paper examined multidirectional transitions across cigarette smoking, including switching between menthol and non-menthol cigarettes, among young adults. Results indicate that Hispanic/Latino and Asian young adults are at increased risk of transition to menthol cigarette smoking compared with non-Hispanic white young adults. Findings highlight need for further study of Hispanic/Latino and Asian young adult smoking behaviors.