ArticleBMC public health2020
The effects of containment measures in the Italian outbreak of COVID-19.
Article in BMC public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions against COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2021Pooled it
- Efficiency evaluation on case finding strategy for COVID-19 outbreak control under China's "dynamic zero-case policy": a retrospective field epidemiology study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Observational
- Community case study for surveillance and early case-detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections across high-risk key populations: the Sentinella programme.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on the lives of Canadians with and without non-communicable chronic diseases: results from the iCARE Study.BMC public health · 2023Article
- An Epidemic Model with Time-Distributed Recovery and Death Rates.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Effects of COVID-19 lockdown on weight in a cohort of allergic children and adolescents.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2022Article
- Impact of screen exposure on pediatric vernal Keratoconjunctivitis: a survey during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2022Observational
- A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- A hybrid Neural Network-SEIR model for forecasting intensive care occupancy in Switzerland during COVID-19 epidemics.PloS one · 2022Article
- Psychological health in COVID-19 patients after discharge from an intensive care unit.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on ICU Admissions During Lockdown for Coronavirus Disease 2019 in New Zealand-A Retrospective Cohort Study.Critical care medicine · 2021Article
- Effects of information-induced behavioural changes during the COVID-19 lockdowns: the case of Italy.Royal Society open science · 2020Article
- Approaches to Daily Monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Italy.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading worldwide. Italy emerged early on as the country with the largest outbreak outside Asia. The outbreak in Northern Italy demonstrates that it is fundamental to contain the virus' spread at a very early stage of diffusion. At later stages, no containment measure, even if strict, can prevent the saturation of the hospitals and of the intensive care units in any country. Here we show that it is possible to predict when the intensive care units will saturate, within a few days from the beginning of the exponential growth of COVID-19 intensive care patients. Using early counts of intensive care patients, we predict the saturation for Lombardy, Italy. We also assess short-term and long-term lockdown effects on intensive care units and number of deaths. Governments should use the Italian outbreak as a precedent and implement appropriate containment measures to prevent the saturation of their intensive care units and protect their population, also, and above all, in anticipation of a possible second exponential spread of infections.
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