ArticleJournal of theoretical biology2021
A novel COVID-19 epidemiological model with explicit susceptible and asymptomatic isolation compartments reveals unexpected consequences of timing social distancing.
Article in Journal of theoretical biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 67 citations in OpenAlex.
- Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible type COVID-19 spread with collective effects.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Consistent Healthcare Safety Recommendation System for Preventing Contagious Disease Infections in Human Crowds.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Effectiveness of feedback control and the trade-off between death by COVID-19 and costs of countermeasures.Health care management science · 2023Article
- A new approach to modeling pre-symptomatic incidence and transmission time of imported COVID-19 cases evolving with SARS-CoV-2 variants.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2023Article
- Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model.IEEE transactions on automation science and engineering : a publication of the IEEE Robotics and Automation Society · 2022Article
- Mathematical modelling of earlier stages of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Ghana.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Non-pharmacological interventions of travel restrictions and cancelation of public events had a major reductive mortality affect during pre-vaccination coronavirus disease 2019 period.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
- Modeling optimal reopening strategies for COVID-19 and its variants by keeping infections low and fixing testing capacity.PloS one · 2022Article
- Modeling robust COVID-19 intensive care unit occupancy thresholds for imposing mitigation to prevent exceeding capacities.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Feedback control of social distancing for COVID-19 via elementary formulae.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2022Article
- Mathematical COVID-19 model with vaccination: a case study in Saudi Arabia.PeerJ. Computer science · 2022Article
- Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- Optimizing time-limited non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 outbreak control.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Phylogenomic tracing of asymptomatic transmission in a COVID-19 outbreak.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2021Article
- Caprine Arthritis Encephalitis Virus Disease Modelling Review.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2021Review
- Optimal timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- A dynamical model of SARS-CoV-2 based on people flow networks.Safety science · 2021Article
- Mitigation Policies and COVID-19-Associated Mortality - 37 European Countries, January 23-June 30, 2020.MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report · 2021Article
- Attitudes and Perceptions of Health Protection Measures Against the Spread of COVID-19 in Italy and Poland.Frontiers in psychology · 2021Article
- Structural identifiability and observability of compartmental models of the COVID-19 pandemic.Annual reviews in control · 2021Review
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Motivated by the current COVID-19 epidemic, this work introduces an epidemiological model in which separate compartments are used for susceptible and asymptomatic "socially distant" populations. Distancing directives are represented by rates of flow into these compartments, as well as by a reduction in contacts that lessens disease transmission. The dynamical behavior of this system is analyzed, under various different rate control strategies, and the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number to various parameters is studied. One of the striking features of this model is the existence of a critical implementation delay (CID) in issuing distancing mandates: while a delay of about two weeks does not have an appreciable effect on the peak number of infections, issuing mandates even slightly after this critical time results in a far greater incidence of infection. Thus, there is a nontrivial but tight "window of opportunity" for commencing social distancing in order to meet the capacity of healthcare resources. However, if one wants to also delay the timing of peak infections - so as to take advantage of potential new therapies and vaccines - action must be taken much faster than the CID. Different relaxation strategies are also simulated, with surprising results. Periodic relaxation policies suggest a schedule which may significantly inhibit peak infective load, but that this schedule is very sensitive to parameter values and the schedule's frequency. Furthermore, we considered the impact of steadily reducing social distancing measures over time. We find that a too-sudden reopening of society may negate the progress achieved under initial distancing guidelines, but the negative effects can be mitigated if the relaxation strategy is carefully designed.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.