Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33241760›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical screening2021

The impact of episodic screening interruption: COVID-19 and population-based cancer screening in Canada.

Jean He Yong, James G Mainprize, Martin J Yaffe, Yibing Ruan, Abbey E Poirier, Andrew Coldman, Claude Nadeau, Nicolas Iragorri, Robert J Hilsden, Darren R Brenner

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical screening, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 117 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
117citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
12.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

117 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 193 citations in OpenAlex.

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57 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Jean He YongIndependent Consultant, Toronto, Canada.
James G Mainprize282299Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-5479-1280
Martin J Yaffe282299Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-7227-9915
Yibing RuanDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, 3146Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-2417-7172
Abbey E PoirierDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, 3146Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Canada.
Andrew ColdmanBritish Columbia Cancer Research, Vancouver, Canada.
Claude Nadeau6360Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Canada.
Nicolas IragorriUniversity of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Robert J HilsdenForzani & MacPhail Colon Cancer Screening Centre, 3146Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Canada.
Darren R BrennerDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, 3146Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Canada.
Alberta Health Services · CAUniversity of Toronto · CAStatistics Canada · CASunnybrook Hospital · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPopulation-based cancer screening can reduce cancer burden but was interrupted temporarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the long-term clinical impact of breast and colorectal cancer screening interruptions in Canada using a validated mathematical model.

methodsWe used the OncoSim breast and colorectal cancers microsimulation models to explore scenarios of primary screening stops for 3, 6, and 12 months followed by 6-24-month transition periods of reduced screening volumes. For breast cancer, we estimated changes in cancer incidence over time, additional advanced-stage cases diagnosed, and excess cancer deaths in 2020-2029. For colorectal cancer, we estimated changes in cancer incidence over time, undiagnosed advanced adenomas and colorectal cancers in 2020, and lifetime excess cancer incidence and deaths.

resultsOur simulations projected a surge of cancer cases when screening resumes. For breast cancer screening, a three-month interruption could increase cases diagnosed at advanced stages (310 more) and cancer deaths (110 more) in 2020-2029. A six-month interruption could lead to 670 extra advanced cancers and 250 additional cancer deaths. For colorectal cancers, a six-month suspension of primary screening could increase cancer incidence by 2200 cases with 960 more cancer deaths over the lifetime. Longer interruptions, and reduced volumes when screening resumes, would further increase excess cancer deaths.

conclusionsInterruptions in cancer screening will lead to additional cancer deaths, additional advanced cancers diagnosed, and a surge in demand for downstream resources when screening resumes. An effective strategy is needed to minimize potential harm to people who missed their screening.

Indexed as

COVID-19Breast NeoplasmsCanadaColorectal NeoplasmsEarly Detection of CancerFemaleHumansIncidenceMalecolo-rectal cancer screeningCOVID-19interruption of screeningmammography screening

Identifiers

PMID33241760
PMCPMC7691762
OpenAlexW3108766839

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.