Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33236036›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2020

Tracking and predicting the African COVID-19 pandemic.

Paddy Ssentongo, Claudio Fronterre, Andrew Geronimo, Steven J Greybush, Pamela K Mbabazi, Joseph Muvawala, Sarah B Nahalamba, Philip O Omadi, Bernard T Opar, Shamim A Sinnar and 9 more

Abstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Paddy SsentongoCenter for Neural Engineering, Department of Engineering Science and Mechanics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA United States of America.
Claudio FronterreCentre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
Andrew GeronimoDepartment of Neurosurgery, The Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey, PA, United States of America.
Steven J GreybushDepartment of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, and Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States of America.
Pamela K MbabaziNational Planning Authority, Kampala, Uganda.
Joseph MuvawalaNational Planning Authority, Kampala, Uganda.
Sarah B NahalambaNational Planning Authority, Kampala, Uganda.
Philip O OmadiNational Planning Authority, Kampala, Uganda.
Bernard T OparMinistry of Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Shamim A SinnarCenter for Neural Engineering, Department of Engineering Science and Mechanics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA United States of America.
Yan WangDepartment of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, and Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States of America.
Andrew J WhalenCenter for Neural Engineering, Department of Engineering Science and Mechanics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA United States of America.
Leonhard HeldEpidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI) University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Chris JewellCentre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
Abraham J B MuwanguziNational Planning Authority, Kampala, Uganda.
Helen GreatrexDepartment of Geography, Department of Statistics, and Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA United States of America.
Michael M NortonCenter for Neural Engineering, Department of Engineering Science and Mechanics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA United States of America.
Peter DiggleCentre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
Steven J SchiffCenter for Neural Engineering, Department of Engineering Science and Mechanics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA United States of America.

Funding

Predictive Personalized Public Health (P3H): A Novel Paradigm to Treat Infectious DiseaseR01AI145057 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI SCHIFF, STEVEN J · 2018 to 2022
$8.1M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI145057
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We use a model that explains the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic over time in the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the human development index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

Identifiers

PMID33236036
PMCPMC7685354

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.