ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2021
Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- A novel comparison framework for epidemiological strategies applied to age-based restrictions versus horizontal lockdowns.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the slowdown in the spread of coronavirus in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, in July 2020.Cadernos de saude publica · 2023Article
- Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Factors driving the implementation of the 'Local New Year' policy to prevent COVID-19 in China.Humanities & social sciences communications · 2023Article
- From pandemic to a new normal: Strategies to optimise governmental interventions in Indonesia based on an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- How optimal allocation of limited testing capacity changes epidemic dynamics.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- An epidemic model for COVID-19 transmission in Argentina: Exploration of the alternating quarantine and massive testing strategies.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- Microsimulation based quantitative analysis of COVID-19 management strategies.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups.Journal of dynamics and differential equations · 2021Article
- Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2021Article
- Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Estimating the effects of reopening of schools on the course of the epidemic of COVID-19.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Article
- Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.PloS one · 2021Article
- Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic.Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil)Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo, Brasil. The State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at most 59% in late March and started to relax the measures in late June, dropping to 41% in 08 August. Therefore, São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic. Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated. One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD, that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%. The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts - this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%. The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st, it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90% at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.