ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2021
Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 242 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
242 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 455 citations in OpenAlex.
- Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.BMC public health · 2023Pooled it
- Systematic review and meta-analyses of superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 infections.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Pooled it
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk to healthcare workers performing tracheostomies: a systematic review.ANZ journal of surgery · 2022Pooled it
- Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: Update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis.PLoS medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.The Journal of infection · 2021Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Impact of Digital Contact Tracing and Other Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Control: Microlevel, Behavior-Driven Agent-Based Model Analysis.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Non-Markovian dynamics and effective reproduction number in COVID-19: Evidence from Cyprus contact tracing data.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Disentangling the drivers of heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission from data on viral load and daily contact rates.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Extensive cryptic circulation sustains mpox among men who have sex with men.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Epidemiological impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions are modulated by immunity exposure trade offs.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- VIBES: A multiscale modeling approach integrating within-host and between-hosts dynamics in epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- The role of social determinants in COVID-19 hospitalization disparities by migration status in Stockholm, Sweden. A population-based cohort study.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Household SARS-CoV-2 transmission during Omicron wave in Chiang Mai, Thailand: a prospective observational study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2026Article
- Understanding pandemics through molecular gas dynamics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Changing socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in Germany, March 2020 through May 2022: an ecological study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Superspreading and the evolution of virulence.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Optimal pandemic control strategies and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
182 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
17 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A long-standing question in infectious disease dynamics concerns the role of transmission heterogeneities, which are driven by demography, behavior, and interventions. On the basis of detailed patient and contact-tracing data in Hunan, China, we find that 80% of secondary infections traced back to 15% of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) primary infections, which indicates substantial transmission heterogeneities. Transmission risk scales positively with the duration of exposure and the closeness of social interactions and is modulated by demographic and clinical factors. The lockdown period increases transmission risk in the family and households, whereas isolation and quarantine reduce risks across all types of contacts. The reconstructed infectiousness profile of a typical SARS-CoV-2 patient peaks just before symptom presentation. Modeling indicates that SARS-CoV-2 control requires the synergistic efforts of case isolation, contact quarantine, and population-level interventions because of the specific transmission kinetics of this virus.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.