ArticleGut2020
Computational modelling suggests that Barrett's oesophagus may be the precursor of all oesophageal adenocarcinomas.
Article in Gut, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
38 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 66 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Tissue Systems Pathology Test Predicts Risk of Progression in Patients With Barrett's Esophagus: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of clinical gastroenterology · 2026Pooled it
- AGA Clinical Practice Guideline on Endoscopic Eradication Therapy of Barrett's Esophagus and Related Neoplasia.Gastroenterology · 2024Guideline
- Natural history of Barrett's esophagus over a 10-year period: a longitudinal endoscopic study in a Japanese population.Journal of gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Integrated epidemiological and molecular data inform the relationship between precancer and cancer states of esophageal adenocarcinoma.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- Diagnostic and Prognostic Biomarkers for Barrett's Esophagus.Gastroenterology clinics of North America · 2026Review
- Clinical significance of hiatus hernia on Barrett's oesophagus: a scoping review.Langenbeck's archives of surgery · 2026Article
- Community assembly modeling of the microbiome within Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.BMC genomics · 2026Article
- Signaling pathways and targeted interventions for precancers.Signal transduction and targeted therapy · 2026Review
- Endoscopic Screening of Barrett's Esophagus.Gastrointestinal endoscopy clinics of North America · 2026Review
- Implementation of Provider-Facing Interventions to Increase Uptake of Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.Gastro hep advances · 2026Article
- The biology and therapeutic implications of heterogeneity in Barrett oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2026Review
- Interactions between cancer-associated fibroblasts and the extracellular matrix in oesophageal cancer.Matrix biology : journal of the International Society for Matrix Biology · 2025Review
- Application of smart responsive nanomaterials in the theranostics of gastrointestinal malignancies: Current status and future perspectives.Coordination chemistry reviews · 2025Article
- New Approaches to Screening for Barrett Esophagus.Gastroenterology & hepatology · 2025Article
- Computing lifetime incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma and age-specific prevalence of Barrett's esophagus.Diseases of the esophagus : official journal of the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus · 2025Article
- NONENDOSCOPIC DETECTION OF BARRETT'S ESOPHAGUS IN PATIENTS WITHOUT GERD SYMPTOMS.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Targeting Esophageal Cancer: Promising Drugs for the Clinical Landscape and Key Knowledge Gaps.Drug design, development and therapy · 2025Review
- Cancer risk by length of Barrett's esophagus in Japanese population: a nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort study.Journal of gastroenterology · 2024Article
- Algorithm Training and Testing for a Nonendoscopic Barrett's Esophagus Detection Test in Prospective Multicenter Cohorts.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2024Article
- The role of the fibroblast in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.Current opinion in gastroenterology · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveBarrett's oesophagus (BE) is a known precursor to oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) but current clinical data have not been consolidated to address whether BE is the origin of all incident OAC, which would reinforce evidence for BE screening efforts. We aimed to answer whether all expected prevalent BE, diagnosed and undiagnosed, could account for all incident OACs in the US cancer registry data.
designWe used a multiscale computational model of OAC that includes the evolutionary process from normal oesophagus through BE in individuals from the US population. The model was previously calibrated to fit Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results cancer incidence curves. Here, we also utilised age-specific and sex-specific US census data for numbers at-risk. The primary outcome for model validation was the expected number of OAC cases for a given calendar year. Secondary outcomes included the comparisons of resulting model-predicted prevalence of BE and BE-to-OAC progression to the observed prevalence and progression rates.
resultsThe model estimated the total number of OAC cases from BE in 2010 was 9970 (95% CI: 9140 to 11 980), which recapitulates nearly all OAC cases from population data. The model simultaneously predicted 8%-9% BE prevalence in high-risk males age 45-55, and 0.1%-0.2% non-dysplastic BE-to-OAC annual progression in males, consistent with clinical studies.
conclusionThere are likely few additional OAC cases arising in the US population outside those expected from individuals with BE. Effective screening of high-risk patients could capture the majority of population destined for OAC progression and potentially decrease mortality through early detection and curative removal of small (pre)cancers during surveillance.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.