ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2020
Disease Emergence in Multi-Patch Stochastic Epidemic Models with Demographic and Seasonal Variability.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Theory of infectious disease spillover at an ecological boundary: impacts of seasonality and cross-boundary movement.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Assessing the correlation between STAR health risk forecasts with actual health emergencies in West and Central Africa: a three-year analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Observational
- The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions.Communications medicine · 2021Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Factors such as seasonality and spatial connectivity affect the spread of an infectious disease. Accounting for these factors in infectious disease models provides useful information on the times and locations of greatest risk for disease outbreaks. In this investigation, stochastic multi-patch epidemic models are formulated with seasonal and demographic variability. The stochastic models are used to investigate the probability of a disease outbreak when infected individuals are introduced into one or more of the patches. Seasonal variation is included through periodic transmission and dispersal rates. Multi-type branching process approximation and application of the backward Kolmogorov differential equation lead to an estimate for the probability of a disease outbreak. This estimate is also periodic and depends on the time, the location, and the number of initial infected individuals introduced into the patch system as well as the magnitude of the transmission and dispersal rates and the connectivity between patches. Examples are given for seasonal transmission and dispersal in two and three patches.
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