Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33225313›Full record

ArticleNature food2020

UK's fruit and vegetable supply increasingly dependent on imports from climate vulnerable producing countries.

Pauline Fd Scheelbeek, Cami Moss, Thomas Kastner, Carmelia Alae-Carew, Stephanie Jarmul, Rosemary Green, Anna Taylor, Andy Haines, Alan D Dangour

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature food, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Wild vegetables contribute to improving the diversity and sustainability of vegetable diets in China.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
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  9. Using the natural capital framework to integrate biodiversity into sustainable, efficient and equitable environmental-economic decision-making.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025
    Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Meeting report: plant-rich dietary patterns and health.The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society · 2022
    Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Pauline Fd ScheelbeekDepartment of Population Health - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6209-2284
Cami MossDepartment of Population Health - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - London, UK.
Thomas KastnerSenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Senckenberg - Frankfurt am Main, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8155-136X
Carmelia Alae-CarewDepartment of Population Health - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - London, UK.
Stephanie JarmulDepartment of Population Health - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - London, UK.
Rosemary GreenDepartment of Population Health - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5850-6715
Anna TaylorThe Food Foundation - London, UK.
Andy HainesDepartment of Population Health - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8053-4605
Alan D DangourDepartment of Population Health - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6908-1273

Funding

Wellcome Trust 106924Wellcome Trust 205200
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Domestic contribution to total fruit and vegetable supply in the UK decreased from 42% in 1987 to 22% in 2013. The impact of this changing pattern of UK fruit and vegetable imports, from countries with different vulnerabilities to projected climate change, on the resilience of the UK food system is currently unknown. Here, we used the UN FAO bilateral trade database over a period of 27 years to estimate changes in fruit and vegetable supply in the UK, and the NDGAIN climate vulnerability categories to assess the climate vulnerability of countries supplying fruit and vegetables to the UK. The diversity of fruit and vegetable supply has increased from 21 crops, comprising the top 80% of all fruit and vegetables supplied to the UK in 1987, to 34 crops in 2013. The contribution of tropical fruits has rapidly increased while that of more traditional vegetables, such as cabbages and carrots, has declined. The proportion of fruit and vegetables supplied to the UK market from climate vulnerable countries increased from 20% in 1987 to 32% in 2013. Sensitivity analyses - using climatic and freshwater availability indicators - supported these findings. Increased reliance on fruit and vegetable imports from climate vulnerable countries could negatively affect the availability, price and consumption of fruit and vegetables in the UK, affecting dietary intake and health particularly of older people and low-income households. Inter-sectoral actions across agriculture, health, environment, and trade are critical in both the UK and countries that export to the UK to increase the resilience of the food system, and support population health.

Identifiers

PMID33225313
PMCPMC7116398

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.