Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33222597›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Heart Association2020

Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018.

Nilay S Shah, Donald M Lloyd-Jones, Namratha R Kandula, Mark D Huffman, Simon Capewell, Martin O'Flaherty, Kiarri N Kershaw, Mercedes R Carnethon, Sadiya S Khan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Nilay S ShahDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago IL.
Donald M Lloyd-JonesDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago IL.
Namratha R KandulaDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago IL.
Mark D HuffmanDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago IL.
Simon CapewellInstitute of Population Sciences University of Liverpool United Kingdom.
Martin O'FlahertyInstitute of Population Sciences University of Liverpool United Kingdom.
Kiarri N KershawDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago IL.
Mercedes R CarnethonDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago IL.
Sadiya S KhanDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago IL.

Funding

Northwestern University Clinical and Translational Science Institute (NUCATS)UL1TR001422 · NCATS · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI D'AQUILA, RICHARD · 2015 to 2023
$56.8M
Northwestern University Clinical and Translational Science Institute (NUCATS)KL2TR001424 · NCATS · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI SHARMA, LEENA · 2015 to 2023
$8.1M
Social Network Characteristics and Cardiovascular Health in South Asian AmericansF32HL149187 · NHLBI · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI SHAH, NILAY S. · 2019 to 2020
$150k
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR001424NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001422NHLBI NIH HHS F32 HL149187
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background Life expectancy in the United States has recently declined, in part attributable to premature cardiometabolic mortality. We characterized national trends in premature cardiometabolic mortality, overall, and by race-sex groups. Methods and Results Using death certificates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, we quantified premature deaths (<65 years of age) from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus from 1999 to 2018. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) from each cardiometabolic cause occurring at <65 years of age. We used Joinpoint regression to identify an inflection point in overall cardiometabolic AAMR trends. Average annual percent change in AAMRs and YPLL was quantified before and after the identified inflection point. From 1999 to 2018, annual premature deaths from heart disease (117 880 to 128 832), cerebrovascular disease (18 765 to 20 565), and diabetes mellitus (16 553 to 24 758) as an underlying cause of death increased. By 2018, 19.7% of all heart disease deaths, 13.9% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths, and 29.1% of all diabetes mellitus deaths were premature. AAMRs and YPLL from heart disease and cerebrovascular disease declined until the inflection point identified in 2011, then remained unchanged through 2018. Conversely, AAMRs and YPLL from diabetes mellitus did not change through 2011, then increased through 2018. Black men and women had higher AAMRs and greater YPLL for each cardiometabolic cause compared with White men and women, respectively. Conclusions Over one-fifth of cardiometabolic deaths occurred at <65 years of age. Recent stagnation in cardiometabolic AAMRs and YPLL are compounded by persistent racial disparities.

Indexed as

AdultBlack or African AmericanCause of DeathCerebrovascular DisordersDiabetes MellitusFemaleHeart DiseasesHumansMaleMiddle AgedMortality, PrematureRetrospective StudiesUnited StatesWhite Peoplecerebrovascular diseasediabetes mellitusheart diseasemortalitypremature

Identifiers

PMID33222597
PMCPMC7763768

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.