Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33219112›Full record

ArticleScience advances2021

Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 screening.

Daniel B Larremore, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, Soraya Shehata, James M Burke, James A Hay, Milind Tambe, Michael J Mina, Roy Parker

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 585 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
585citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
67.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

585 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 1,273 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Investigation of the diagnostic performance of the SARS-CoV-2 saliva antigen test: A meta-analysis.Journal of microbiology, immunology, and infection = Wei mian yu gan ran za zhi · 2022
    Pooled it
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  6. Performance of saline and water gargling for SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase PCR testing: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2022
    Pooled it
  7. Cost and cost-effectiveness of four different SARS-CoV-2 active surveillance strategies: evidence from a randomised control trial in Germany.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2023
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525 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.

Daniel B LarremoreDepartment of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder. daniel.larremore@colorado.edu mmina@hsph.harvard.edu roy.parker@colorado.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-5273-5234
Bryan WilderCenter for Research on Computation and Society, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University.
Evan LesterDepartment of Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder.ORCID 0000-0002-0486-0361
Soraya ShehataMedical Scientist Training Program, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus.
James M BurkeDepartment of Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder.
James A HayCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.ORCID 0000-0002-1998-1844
Milind TambeCenter for Research on Computation and Society, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University.ORCID 0000-0003-3296-3672
Michael J MinaCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. daniel.larremore@colorado.edu mmina@hsph.harvard.edu roy.parker@colorado.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-0674-5762
Roy ParkerBioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado Boulder. daniel.larremore@colorado.edu mmina@hsph.harvard.edu roy.parker@colorado.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-8412-4152
University of Colorado Boulder · USHarvard University · USBrigham and Women's Hospital · USCenter for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy · USHoward Hughes Medical Institute · US

Funding

Deconvolution and reconstruction of immune histories to enhance infectious disease prevention and vaccination strategies and optimize surveillance effortsDP5OD028145 · OD · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI HOFMAN, ALBERT · 2019 to 2021
$1.2M
Determining the specificity and biological functions of widespread host mRNA degradation by RNase LF32AI145112 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO · PI BURKE, JAMES M · 2019 to 2021
$200k
The Role of RNA in Tau AggregationF30AG063468 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO · PI LESTER, EVAN T · 2019 to 2022
$154k
Howard Hughes Medical InstituteNIAID NIH HHS F32 AI145112NIA NIH HHS F30 AG063468NIH HHS DP5 OD028145
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. Because SARS-CoV-2 can spread from individuals with presymptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic infections, the reopening of societies and the control of virus spread will be facilitated by robust population screening, for which virus testing will often be central. After infection, individuals undergo a period of incubation during which viral titers are too low to detect, followed by exponential viral growth, leading to peak viral load and infectiousness and ending with declining titers and clearance. Given the pattern of viral load kinetics, we model the effectiveness of repeated population screening considering test sensitivities, frequency, and sample-to-answer reporting time. These results demonstrate that effective screening depends largely on frequency of testing and speed of reporting and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity. We therefore conclude that screening should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time; analytical limits of detection should be secondary.

Indexed as

COVID-19 Nucleic Acid TestingViral LoadAsymptomatic InfectionsCalibrationComputer SimulationCOVID-19EpidemicsHumansKineticsLimit of DetectionMass ScreeningModels, TheoreticalPolymerase Chain ReactionReproducibility of ResultsSensitivity and SpecificityTime Factors

Identifiers

PMID33219112
PMCPMC7775777
OpenAlexW3102037011

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.