ArticleAnnals of translational medicine2020
Development and validation of a risk prediction model and scoring system for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis.
Article in Annals of translational medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Comparison of the incidence of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis in patients with and without diabetes: a meta-analysis.Surgical endoscopy · 2025Pooled it
- Risk prediction model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Morphology of the papilla can predict procedural safety and efficacy of ERCP-a systematic review and meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2024Pooled it
- A Risk Prediction Model for Post-endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis After Stent Insertion for Malignant Biliary Obstruction: Development and Validation.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2023Trial
- Article
- Radiomics analysis based on MRCP for predicting post-ERCP pancreatitis in patients with common bile duct stones.Surgical endoscopy · 2026Article
- Risk prediction of biliary infection after endoscopic drainage for malignant perihilar biliary obstruction: A 10-year multicenter retrospective study.World journal of gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: Mechanistic pathways, diagnostic benchmarks, and emerging and mitochondria-targeted therapies.World journal of gastrointestinal surgery · 2025Review
- Article
- Predictive models for post-ERCP pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in gastroenterology (Lausanne, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Article
- Risk factors of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in patients with biliary tract diseases.BMC surgery · 2023Article
- Prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis: current strategies and novel perspectives.Therapeutic advances in gastroenterology · 2023Review
- New practical scoring system to predict post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: Development and validation.JGH open : an open access journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundA few models have been proposed for the prediction of the risk of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP), but many include factors that are not assessed routinely. Herein, we intend to develop and validate a predictive model for the occurrence of PEP.
methodsData of patients who underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) from January 01, 2016 to May 16, 2019 (training set and internal test set) and from May 17, 2019 to December 25, 2019 (external test set) were retrospectively collected. The performance of the model was validated in the two validation cohorts.
resultsA total of 342 patients were included for the external test set, and 47 (13.7%) developed PEP. The variables included in the scoring system were gastrectomy history, high direct bilirubin (DBIL), high albumin (ALB), villous type of papillary orifice, nodular type of papillary orifice, pancreatic guidewire passages, precut sphincterotomy, and high operator experience. A total score >5 indicated high risk. In the external test set, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.718, the sensitivity was 0.723, and the specificity was 0.676. In the external test set, the probability of PEP was 6.1%, 17.0%, and 37.5% in patients with low (<0), moderate (0-5), and high (>5) risk scores, respectively.
conclusionsThis study established a scoring system for predicting the risk of PEP using routinely measured clinical variables. Its application in routine work warrants further investigation.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.