Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33208913›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

Machine learning to predict mortality after rehabilitation among patients with severe stroke.

Domenico Scrutinio, Carlo Ricciardi, Leandro Donisi, Ernesto Losavio, Petronilla Battista, Pietro Guida, Mario Cesarelli, Gaetano Pagano, Giovanni D'Addio

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  11. Big Data in Stroke: How to Use Big Data to Make the Next Management Decision.Neurotherapeutics : the journal of the American Society for Experimental NeuroTherapeutics · 2023
    Review
  12. Article
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  14. Towards Interpretable Multimodal Predictive Models for Early Mortality Prediction of Hemorrhagic Stroke Patients.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Domenico ScrutinioIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy.
Carlo RicciardiIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy. carloricciardi.93@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0001-7290-6432
Leandro DonisiIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy.
Ernesto LosavioIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy.
Petronilla BattistaIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy.
Pietro GuidaIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy.
Mario CesarelliIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy.
Gaetano PaganoIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy.
Giovanni D'AddioIstituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Stroke is among the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Approximately 20-25% of stroke survivors present severe disability, which is associated with increased mortality risk. Prognostication is inherent in the process of clinical decision-making. Machine learning (ML) methods have gained increasing popularity in the setting of biomedical research. The aim of this study was twofold: assessing the performance of ML tree-based algorithms for predicting three-year mortality model in 1207 stroke patients with severe disability who completed rehabilitation and comparing the performance of ML algorithms to that of a standard logistic regression. The logistic regression model achieved an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.745 and was well calibrated. At the optimal risk threshold, the model had an accuracy of 75.7%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 33.9%, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 91.0%. The ML algorithm outperformed the logistic regression model through the implementation of synthetic minority oversampling technique and the Random Forests, achieving an AUC of 0.928 and an accuracy of 86.3%. The PPV was 84.6% and the NPV 87.5%. This study introduced a step forward in the creation of standardisable tools for predicting health outcomes in individuals affected by stroke.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsMachine LearningAgedClinical Decision-MakingFemaleHumansLogistic ModelsMaleMedicareMiddle AgedMortalityROC CurveStrokeStroke RehabilitationUnited States

Identifiers

PMID33208913
PMCPMC7674405

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.