Cash transfers and residential demand for electricity: insights from BISP, Pakistan.

We examine the causal impacts of the cash transfer program, namely the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), on residential demand for electricity among ultra-poor in Pakistan. We also analyze the effects of BISP cash transfers on a household's decision to acquire electrical appliances. The empirical analysis is based on the fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD) using primary data collected from 1200 households. We find that BISP cash transfer has a significant positive impact on electricity demand among the target group. The cash transfer positively affects the use of few essential electric appliances, such as a washing machine and refrigerator, but not all electrical appliances. The electricity demand mainly stems from the additional use of existing electrical devices. Therefore, the extra income from BISP may not allow the recipients to move up the electric appliances ladder. The provincial analysis shows that the impact of BISP cash transfers on electricity demand varies across provinces and the development level, signifying the importance of regional heterogeneities, such as electricity supply. The findings suggest that cash transfers may facilitate the transition from traditional to modern energy to overcome the rising pollution problem and protect health. The expansion in the cash transfer program demands continuous investment in the power sector to fulfill the growing need for electricity.