Modelling the linkage between coral assemblage structure and pattern of environmental forcing.

Geographical comparisons suggest that coral reef communities can vary as a function of their environmental context, differing not just in terms of total coral cover but also in terms of relative abundance (or coverage) of coral taxa. While much work has considered how shifts in benthic reef dynamics can shift dominance of stony corals relative to algal and other benthic competitors, the relative performance of coral types under differing patterns of environmental disturbance has received less attention. We construct an empirically-grounded numerical model to simulate coral assemblage dynamics under a spectrum of disturbance regimes, contrasting hydrodynamic disturbances (which cause morphology-specific, whole-colony mortality) with disturbances that cause mortality independently of colony morphology. We demonstrate that the relative representation of morphological types within a coral assemblage shows limited connection to the intensity, and essentially no connection to the frequency, of hydrodynamic disturbances. Morphological types of corals that are more vulnerable to mortality owing to hydrodynamic disturbance tend to grow faster, with rates sufficiently high to recover benthic coverage during inter-disturbance intervals. By contrast, we show that factors causing mortality without linkage to morphology, including those that cause only partial colony loss, more dramatically shift coral assemblage structure, disproportionately favouring fast-growing tabular morphologies. Furthermore, when intensity and likelihood of such disturbances increases, assemblages do not adapt smoothly and instead reveal a heightened level of temporal variance, beyond which reefs demonstrate drastically reduced coral coverage. Our findings highlight that adaptation of coral reef benthic assemblages depends on the nature of disturbances, with hydrodynamic disturbances having little to no effect on the capacity of reef coral communities to resist and recover with sustained coral dominance.