ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- How host mobility formulations shape estimates of pathogen dispersal and epidemic risk in non endemic regions.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Serological Susceptibility to Measles Among International Students in South Korea After a Cluster of Cases: A Cross-Sectional Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Article
- Mixing individual and collective behaviors to predict out-of-routine mobility.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Article
- Inter-city movement pattern of notifiable infectious diseases in China: a social network analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Spatial-temporal pattern and drivers associated with measles resurgence from 2018 to 2023: a global perspective from 192 countries.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Fine-scale spatial and social patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from identical pathogen sequences.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Seroprevalence of Measles Antibodies Among Migrant Populations: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Cureus · 2024Review
- Article
- Estimating the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of clusters of identical pathogen sequences.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Quantifying the heterogeneous impact of lockdown policies on different socioeconomic classes during the first COVID-19 wave in Colombia.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Leveraging a national biorepository in Zambia to assess measles and rubella immunity gaps across age and space.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Advancing sustainable development goals through immunization: a literature review.Globalization and health · 2021Review
- Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Political and environmental factors-e.g., regional conflicts and global warming-increase large-scale migrations, posing extraordinary societal challenges to policymakers of destination countries. A common concern is that such a massive arrival of people-often from a country with a disrupted healthcare system-can increase the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks like measles. We analyze human flows of 3.5 million (M) Syrian refugees in Turkey inferred from massive mobile-phone data to verify this concern. We use multilayer modeling of interdependent social and epidemic dynamics to demonstrate that the risk of disease reemergence in Turkey, the main host country, can be dramatically reduced by 75 to 90% when the mixing of Turkish and Syrian populations is high. Our results suggest that maximizing the dispersal of refugees in the recipient population contributes to impede the spread of sustained measles epidemics, rather than favoring it. Targeted vaccination campaigns and policies enhancing social integration of refugees are the most effective strategies to reduce epidemic risks for all citizens.
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