ArticlePloS one2020
Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 52 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness and feasibility of residential passive heat adaptation interventions on reducing indoor temperature in low-income communities in Africa: a systematic review.Environmental research, health : ERH · 2026Review
- Influence of extreme heat waves as an aggravating factor in the cause of death from cardiovascular diseases in Southeast Brazil.Cadernos de saude publica · 2026Article
- The Escalating Threat of Heatwaves in Central Asia: Climate Change Impacts and Public Health Risks.Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ) · 2025Article
- A meta-analysis onParasitology · 2025Review
- Amplification of temperature extremes in Arabian Peninsula under warmer worlds.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Heat stress reveals a fertility debt owing to postcopulatory sexual selection.Evolution letters · 2024Article
- Increasing global temperatures threaten gains in maternal and newborn health in Africa: A review of impacts and an adaptation framework.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2023Review
- Article
- Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change.International journal of biometeorology · 2022Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The duration and intensity of future heat waves are analyzed for 53 cities in the Middle East and the North Africa (MENA) region for the 21st century under two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A consistent approach is carried out using data from 13 Regional models within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). By the end of the century, 80% of the most populated MENA cities are expected to be at least 50% of the days under heat wave conditions during the warm season. In addition, the mean and maximum intensity of the heat waves will also increase. Changes in the duration and intensity of heat waves have shown to be negatively correlated. Therefore, the vulnerability of the MENA cities to future heat waves was determined using a cumulative index (CI) that takes into account both duration and intensity. This CI indicates that Middle East and the eastern part of Africa will suffer the most unfavorable temperature conditions in the future. Assuming no intervention trough adaptation/mitigation strategies, these results, together with the particular properties of the MENA region, such as aridity or lack of precipitation, make it likely that the area will be affected by disease or famine.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.