Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33194969›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2020

On the Use of Markov Models in Pharmacoeconomics: Pros and Cons and Implications for Policy Makers.

Andrea Carta, Claudio Conversano

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
7.0field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 51 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Andrea CartaDepartment of Business and Economics, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy.
Claudio ConversanoDepartment of Business and Economics, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy.
University of Cagliari · IT

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We present an overview of the main methodological features and the goals of pharmacoeconomic models that are classified in three major categories: regression models, decision trees, and Markov models. In particular, we focus on Markov models and define a semi-Markov model on the cost utility of a vaccine for Dengue fever discussing the key components of the model and the interpretation of its results. Next, we identify some criticalities of the decision rule arising from a possible incorrect interpretation of the model outcomes. Specifically, we focus on the difference between median and mean ICER and on handling the willingness-to-pay thresholds. We also show that the life span of the model and an incorrect hypothesis specification can lead to very different outcomes. Finally, we analyse the limit of Markov model when a large number of states is considered and focus on the implementation of tools that can bypass the lack of memory condition of Markov models. We conclude that decision makers should interpret the results of these models with extreme caution before deciding to fund any health care policy and give some recommendations about the appropriate use of these models.

Indexed as

Administrative PersonnelEconomics, PharmaceuticalCost-Benefit AnalysisHumanscost-utility analysisDengue feverincremental cost-effectiveness ratioMarkov modelspharmacoeconomicswillingness to pay

Identifiers

PMID33194969
PMCPMC7661756
OpenAlexW3095555909

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.