Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33194455›Full record

ArticlePeerJ2020

Deep learning prediction of likelihood of ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19 patients using clinical variables.

Xiaoran Li, Peilin Ge, Jocelyn Zhu, Haifang Li, James Graham, Adam Singer, Paul S Richman, Tim Q Duong

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PeerJ, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
62citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
10.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

62 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 113 citations in OpenAlex.

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2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Xiaoran Li *Department of Radiology, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, New York, Stony Brook, NY, USA.
Peilin Ge *Department of Radiology, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, New York, Stony Brook, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4230-438X
Jocelyn ZhuDepartment of Radiology, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, New York, Stony Brook, NY, USA.
Haifang LiDepartment of Radiology, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, New York, Stony Brook, NY, USA.
James GrahamDepartment of Radiology, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, New York, Stony Brook, NY, USA.
Adam SingerDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, New York, Stony Brook, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4694-6152
Paul S RichmanDepartment of Medicine, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, New York, Stony Brook, NY, USA.
Tim Q DuongDepartment of Radiology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6403-2827
Stony Brook School · USAlbert Einstein College of Medicine · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThis study aimed to develop a deep-learning model and a risk-score system using clinical variables to predict intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.

methodsThis retrospective study consisted of 5,766 persons-under-investigation for COVID-19 between 7 February 2020 and 4 May 2020. Demographics, chronic comorbidities, vital signs, symptoms and laboratory tests at admission were collected. A deep neural network model and a risk-score system were constructed to predict ICU admission and in-hospital mortality. Prediction performance used the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC).

resultsThe top ICU predictors were procalcitonin, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, ferritin and oxygen saturation. The top mortality predictors were age, lactate dehydrogenase, procalcitonin, cardiac troponin, C-reactive protein and oxygen saturation. Age and troponin were unique top predictors for mortality but not ICU admission. The deep-learning model predicted ICU admission and mortality with an AUC of 0.780 (95% CI [0.760-0.785]) and 0.844 (95% CI [0.839-0.848]), respectively. The corresponding risk scores yielded an AUC of 0.728 (95% CI [0.726-0.729]) and 0.848 (95% CI [0.847-0.849]), respectively.

conclusionsDeep learning and the resultant risk score have the potential to provide frontline physicians with quantitative tools to stratify patients more effectively in time-sensitive and resource-constrained circumstances.

Indexed as

CoronavirusMachine learningPneumoniaPrediction modelSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID33194455
PMCPMC7651477
OpenAlexW3097189258

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.